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Zambia: Socialism Belongs to the Archives!

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Editor's note: This is a guest post by Henry Kyambalesa (PhD), a resident contributor to Zambian Economist. He is a Zambian academic currently residing in Colorado, USA. 
The fate of less-developed countries (LDCs) in general, and that of African countries in particular, has become one of modern civilization's major sources of concern. The extreme and persistent poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, and unemployment which are currently commonplace in the typical developing country are certainly unprecedented in human history. And, very unfortunately, there are clearly no easy answers or quick fixes to the seemingly self-perpetuating problems facing the developing world.

The recent revelation that the Patriotic Front (PF) government is seriously considering the prospect of establishing an Industrial Development Corporation (INDECO) is, no doubt, disconcerting to some of us who witnessed the rampant shortages of commodities, smuggling, and stunted economic growth associated with socialist policies during the UNIP era.

And those long queues for essential commodities like sugar and cooking oil, which would start building up as early as 03:00 hours even without the assurance that everyone in the queue would eventually buy the commodities they needed!

What is really the new rationale for resurrecting the defunct INDECO—an omnibus monopoly that played a significant role in driving our country from a potentially wealthy nation to a nation saddled with unprecedented socio-economic malaise? And do we really need to create such an enormous consumer of our beloved country's meager foreign exchange reserves?

Article 112(b) of the current Constitution—the 1996 Republican constitution—gives us guidance on this matter; it asserts that "the State shall endeavor to create an economic environment which shall encourage individual initiative and self-reliance among the people and promote private investment."

In addition to this proviso, a Clause proclaiming that "the State shall not nationalize or expropriate private property" should have been enshrined in the Republican constitution to ensure that investors know without a shadow of a doubt what the country's stance on local and foreign investment is.

Clearly, what our beloved country needs now is the creation of what may be referred to as a "social welfare state"—that is, a dynamic free-market economy that has a human face; or, more precisely, a socio-economic setting that simultaneously provides for a highly competitive business system and an effective mechanism for re-distributing wealth to the needy.

Creation of a socialist state, on the other hand, is an exercise in futility because there is apparently nothing meaningful that can be achieved through a centrally controlled socio-economic system. Simply, socialism is an ideology that belongs to the archives!

In fact, the creation of INDECO will certainly put our country at odds with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and our development partners—institutions and countries which have worked so hard in bolstering our efforts at meeting the development needs of our country and the needs and expectations of the majority of our people since 1991.

That will leave only profit-seeking commercial creditors to lend us money at exorbitant interest rates!


1. Africa's Plight

During the 1950s and early 1960s, when most African countries gained their political independence from European colonial powers, Africans harbored very high and somewhat unrealistic expectations about the socio-economic prospects of their native countries. Equating independence with not only self-rule, but also with genuine democracy and prosperity, they strongly believed that the transfer of political power from colonial to African hands would create greater opportunities for them to enhance their socio-economic well-being

Unfortunately, freedom or "uhuru" could not deliver its promises, and disappointment soon ensued. The early euphoria, therefore, faded within a few years of political freedom. In short, the African continent has been wallowing in waves of misfortunes from the time of what has come to be characterized as "nominal" or "flag" independence.

Today, much of the continent is equated with a catalogue of unprecedented socio-economic ills, including famine, malnutrition, ignorance, poverty, disease, economic mismanagement, corruption, civil and tribal conflicts, stagnant and declining economies, low per capita incomes, political strife, and rampant crime and lawlessness.

But how could a continent endowed with abundant natural resources have become the least enviable place on Earth, apparently lagging in all aspects of socio-economic development?

While European colonialism and other external factors cannot be entirely exonerated, Africa's plight is largely a culmination of both incompetent and despotic leadership. Firstly, indigenous political leaders imposed one-party political regimes on their compatriots. By their nature, such regimes could not tolerate dissent. Thus, dictatorships mushroomed during the one-party era; the unchecked political authority generated absolute power that ended up corrupting absolutely and simultaneously resulted in gross mismanagement of national economies.

Secondly, the military, partly inspired by the lack of both a mechanism for peaceful dispensation of political power and mass-participation in the development process, ventured into the realm of governance. But unfortunately, military leaders could not fare any better. Driving civil society underground, like their civilian counterparts, they used "one-size-fits-all" types of political parties. Ultimately, they also lamentably failed to redress the socio-economic woes facing their countries.

Stuck at a political, social, and economic cul-de-sac, the African continent seemed to be heading to calamity when the ripples of democratization and freedom from Eastern Europe reached its shores. Taking advantage of the new wind of change, the resilient African civil society got out of hibernation and compelled existing regimes, both civilian and military, to liberalize economic as well as political systems.

After many years of despair, Africans reconnected with expectations for a higher standard of living!

But, once again, the renewed sense of hope is rapidly waning due to the realization that it takes more than democracy to redress decades of socio-economic decay and backwardness. By itself, democracy, in spite of its promises, is not a panacea for the seemingly perpetual problems facing contemporary Africa.

And, as experience has taught us, adherence to socialist ideals can certainly do more harm than good to a country's development prospects!


2. The Zambian Context

In Zambia, socialist state policies barred both local and foreign private investors from certain commercial and industrial sectors of the country's economy and recommended the creation of state and parastatal companies to operate in such sectors of the economy from the late 1960s to 1991. The former president, Dr. Kenneth D. Kaunda, made the policy pronouncements which ushered in an era of both parastatal and state enterprises in his April 1968, August 1969, and November 1970 addresses to the National Council of his political party, the United National Independence Party (UNIP).

Naturally, the monopolistic position enjoyed by state and parastatal companies culminated in complacence and gross inefficiency because, in the absence of competition, they apparently did not find it necessary to seek or use technological inventions and innovations that would have improved the quality and quantity of their outputs. This, in part, prompted the next government of the late President Frederick J. T. Chiluba to embark on a privatization program upon his inauguration in October 1991 in an attempt to boost competition in commerce and industry.

Privatization of state-owned business undertakings, as Chilipamushi has noted, can stimulate private investment, give economic power to a greater number of people through stock ownership, promote competition and consequently encourage efficiency in commerce and industry, beef up government coffers through the sale of government holdings in state enterprises, as well as ease the financial burden of state companies on the public treasury.

And, as Pitelis and Clarke have pointed out, the reduction of government involvement in commerce and industry which follows the privatization of state enterprises results in reduced public-sector borrowing and government spending.

So, history should offer us guidance on this matter. Socialist policies are simply a pain in the neck! There is, therefore, no justification for re-introducing an ideology that economically traumatized our people from the late 1960s to 1991.


3. A Government with Limited Functions

In this section, let us briefly examine a point of view advocated by the founders of the free enterprise ideology, that a government should have very limited functions. In their view, "That government is best which governs least."

Essentially, they advocated for a government whose functions are limited to the following: protecting private property, providing for public safety and security, enforcing business and other forms of contracts among individuals and/or institutions, inducing (rather than performing) commercial and industrial activities, and, among other things, facilitating the provision of quality education and healthcare.

There are, however, many factors which may lead to an increase in the functions of a country's national government, such as the following: increases in the country's population, an unprecedented number of demands by various interest groups for government involvement in addressing their needs, and, among other things, problems brought about by a multitude of natural and human-induced calamities.

There is no doubt that these and other factors can put pressure on a country's government to expand existing public services and facilities and/or to introduce new ones. Franklin D. Roosevelt, United States president between 1933 and 1945, must have had these and/or other similar kinds of factors in mind when he said: "As new conditions and problems arise beyond the power of men and women to meet as individuals, it becomes the duty of ... government[s] ... to find new remedies with which to meet them."

Nevertheless, the proper governmental role in a modern economy, as Michael E. Porter has advised, should be that of serving as "a catalyst and challenger ... to encourage—or even push—companies to raise their aspirations and move to higher levels of competitive performance."

Mr. William J. Clinton, former U.S. president, espoused this point of view in general terms when he stipulated his Administration's desire in the State of the Union Address of January 27, 1998 thus: "[We need to] build a government that [functions as] ... a catalyst for new ideas, and, most of all, a government that gives ... people the tools they need to make the most of their own lives."

In serving the business community and other segments of society as a "catalyst and challenger," a government needs to provide adequately for various kinds of guarantees, inducements and essential public services and facilities, such as the following:

1) A welldeveloped transportation infrastructure and adequate transportation services to industrial, commercial, and residential areas to ease or facilitate the distribution of production inputs and finished products;

2) Adequate public services (including police protection, fire protection, public utilities, and decent housing), as well as telecommunications, educational, vocational, health, and recreational facilities;

3) Equitable sales, corporate, and other taxes, as well as tax concessions and inducements that are more attractive than those in alternative countries or regions which investors are likely to consider for investment;

4) A viable and efficient financial system, including the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE) and all other financial institutions in the country;

5) A reversal of the current emphasis on stabilizing inflation at the expense of job creation and economic growth by placing greater emphasis on job creation and economic growth through low interest rates and progressive reductions in taxes in order to stimulate investment, savings, and consumption;

6) An ambitious program designed to lure private investments which can lead to the creation of new jobs, facilitate socio-economic development, and create a more competitive economic setting that can promote efficiency, as well as compel business entities to improve the quality of their products, and charge relatively lower prices;

7) Political and civic leaders who are fair and honest in their dealings with private business institutions, and stable economic policies (including a formal assurance against nationalization and/or expropriation of privately owned business undertakings by the national government);

8) Political and civic leaders who are genuine and resolute in their fight against the scourge of corruption in governmental and non-governmental settings;

9) Less bureaucratic licensing, import, export, and other procedures, and adequate information about investment and marketing problems and opportunities in the various sectors of a country's economy and in cross-border markets;

10) A system of justice that is fair, impartial and independent in both word and deed; and

11) A social safety net designed to adequately cater to the needs of economically disadvantaged members of society that is not subject to political meddling or manipulation.

These inducements, services, facilities, and guarantees, among a host of other things, can enable economic units to operate more efficiently and eventually deliver economic and social outputs to society at reasonable costs and prices.

As Alassane Ouattara of Côte d'Ivoire has advised, therefore, there is an urgent need for national leaders to re-define the roles of their governments away from direct involvement in commercial and industrial activities toward the provision of inducements, guarantees and essential public services and facilities to their primary stakeholders.


4. Competitive Business Entities

In practically all affluent nations of the world today, business undertakings are among major institutions which are in the forefront searching for efficient and effective ways and means for application in the creation and delivery of goods and services. In these nations, business entities, as Davis and Frederick have noted, are greatly depended upon to keep the stream of discoveries flowing in the form of consumer goods and services.

This certainly calls for competitive business systems, which are generally and conspicuously lacking in much of the developing world due, in part, to monopolistic government policies and regulations.

In Zambia, the contemplated resurrection of INDECO is certainly going to stifle competition and innovation in commerce and industry in the national economy.

There are many benefits which culminate from "competition," which the Union Bank of Switzerland, quoted by J. A. Reinecke and others, has described as "the incentive to do better." Firstly, it can prompt suppliers to become more innovative in order to satisfy the changing and divergent needs and expectations of consumers in an efficient manner.

Secondly, heightened competition in a country's economy can lead to lower prices, high-quality products, and greater variety and abundance of products in the economy. Moreover, competition generally cures the problem of black markets since it entices suppliers to increase their outputs in order to benefit from economies of scale, thereby saturating a country's markets with a wide range of products.


5. Promotion of Self-Employment

Instead of reviving failed socialist ideals, we should, among other things, be promoting the operations of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). As the United Nations has maintained, a growing body of empirical evidence supports the widely held view that SMEs are instrumental to economic development. There is, therefore, a need to make an earnest effort aimed at promoting SMEs for the following specific reasons, among others:

1) Alternative employment: SMEs will create employment opportunities for talented Zambians and family members who cannot find jobs in large business establishments;

2) Economic empowerment: SMEs will collectively function as a vehicle through which our Government will economically empower its people by enabling them to participate actively and directly in their country's commercial and industrial activities;

3) Income distribution: SMEs will facilitate the generation of wealth for all sectors of our country's economy and thereby reduce existing income disparities;

4) Economic backbone: SMEs operated by Zambians will function as the backbone of our country's economy because it will be both indigenous and permanent, as Mr. Andrew Sardanis has maintained; and

5) Goods and services: SMEs participate in elevating their host communities' social and economic welfare through the provision of various kinds of needed goods and services.

In this regard, there is a need to support all fields of entrepreneurial endeavor—that is, manufacturing, construction, agriculture, mining, retailing, wholesaling, and services. Preferential treatment shall, however, be accorded to investments in the local production of building materials, hardware, and agricultural machinery and equipment.


6. Foreign Direct Investment

We should also continue to embark on a sustained effort aimed at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Such investment, whether it is made in a country's export processing zone (EPZ) or main economy, is generally regarded as an important element in a country's quest for both accelerated and protracted socio-economic development.

As such, the promotion of foreign investment has become one of the major components of the economic policy regimes of apparently all countries of the world today. In fact, even countries which already have strong economies—such as G-7 nations, Sweden, and Australia, among many others—and have historically relied mainly on local investment capital have generated ambitious policies designed to attract foreign private investment in recent years.

But countries which have a quest for FDI should not expect such investment to flow into their economies like manna from heaven; a great deal of governmental effort is needed to lure foreign investors.

It is, therefore, important for national governments which are yearning for foreign participants in their economies to create a conducive investment environment if they are to succeed in their quest for foreign investment. Such an environment should provide for attractive tax incentives, adequate skilled labor, a network of business support services and institutions, well-developed infrastructure, and, among a host of other things, protracted industrial harmony.

Ernst & Young, Inc. has identified other important aspects which should constitute such an investment environment; these are: trade liberalization, revocation of price controls, a sound legal framework designed to protect private investment and facilitate the functioning of a market economy, a well-developed financial market, good infrastructure (including energy, water, telecommunications, and transport facilities), governmental assistance in nurturing entrepreneurial and management skills, and government programs designed to reduce the negative impacts of a transition to a free-market economy on vulnerable individuals and institutions.

Mallampally and Sauvant have provided a broader assessment of the significance of FDI to a developing country: "Not only can FDI add to investible resources and capital formation, but, perhaps more important, it is also a means of transferring production technology, skills, innovative capacity, and organizational and managerial practices between locations, as well as of accessing international marketing networks."

In general, proponents of foreign investment often cite the potential benefits of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to host nations in discerning the necessity of such investment, since MNEs are generally regarded as the vectors of FDI. They claim that MNEs:

1) Make it possible for countries to gain access to investment capital and advanced technology;

2) Contribute to the creation of employment opportunities;

3) Introduce a diversity of new products in host countries, thereby affording consumers greater choice;

4) Contribute to the tax revenues of both national and local governments;

5) Promote exports, thereby contributing to the generation of foreign exchange;

6) Boost competition in host countries and, thus, prompt local businesses to seek greater efficiency in their operations;

7) Promote local businesses which supply the inputs and/or render the services they need to support their operations; and

8) Contribute to the development of managerial talent in host countries.

The operations of multinational companies are, of course, not without costs or disadvantages to host countries; critics of such companies often claim that they, among other things:

1) Contribute to the self-perpetuating dependence on foreign technology;

2) Cause dislocations in a host country's balance of payments, such as when they import raw materials, repatriate profits, and/or engage in transfer pricing;

3) Subject local business entities which do not have the necessary material and financial resources to compete effectively with MNEs get subjected to unfair competition in industrial, consumer and labor markets;

4) Contribute to the degradation of the physical environment through air, water and solid-waste pollution; and

5) Introduce foreign social values and/or consumption patterns that are likely to disrupt locally cherished moral and cultural practices.

For countries which are fruitlessly striving to break the bondage of their people to misery, want and destitution, the potential benefits of foreign investment certainly outweigh the potential costs of such investment. In fact, the costs often associated with FDI and the MNE are normal effects of a live economy which a host government should be in a position to reduce to acceptable levels through regulatory and administrative mechanisms.

With respect to developing countries like Zambia, Mallampally and Sauvant have provided the ensuing broad assessment of the significance of foreign investment to their quest for heightened and sustained socio-economic development:

"Not only can FDI add to investible resources and capital formation, but, perhaps more important, it is also a means of transferring production technology, skills, innovative capacity, and organizational and managerial practices between locations, as well as of accessing international marketing networks."


7. Economic Diversification

The Zambian government also needs to step up current efforts to diversify the national economy in order to lessen the country's dependence on the mining industry. As Trevor Manuel of South Africa advised the MMD Government in November 2001, "the Zambian Government [should] ... quickly work towards the diversification of its exports as the era of single commodity dependence was long gone."

Economic diversification is essential if we are to pull the national economy out of the persistent dislocation which it has suffered since independence due to its over-dependence on the mining industry. Potential areas for such diversification shall include manufacturing, agriculture, agribusiness, tourism, gemstone mining, and hydro-electric power.

Economic diversification has been a recurrent theme in Zambia since the country's independence in October 1964. However, not much has been achieved to date in the country's quest to diversify its economy.

According to the Civil Society for Poverty Reduction (CSPR), there are several major themes of economic diversification which Zambia has sought to pursue over the decades with comparatively little achievement; they include the following:

1) Sector diversification: Reduction of the dominance of the copper mining sector by promoting agriculture, tourism, gemstone mining, and hydro-electric power;

2) Export diversification: Promotion of a variety of non-traditional exports (NTEs);

3) Resource-use diversification: The use of local raw materials in the production of goods and the provision of services;

4) Technological diversification: Movement from capital-intensive production technologies to appropriate labor-intensive technologies;

5) Scale diversification: Reduction in the dominance of large-scale production by enhancing the role of medium-scale and small-scale production activity;

6) Structural diversification: Strengthening of the production structure by promoting activities with high degrees of internal backward and forward linkages; and

7) Regional diversification: Tapping the comparative advantages of the different provinces in the country with the aim of uplifting the living standards of all the inhabitants and bringing about balanced regional growth and development.

There are many reasons why economic diversification into agriculture, agribusiness, tourism, manufacturing, gemstone mining and exportation, and hydro-electric power has not been fully pursued in Zambia, such as the following:

1) The initial lack of foresight by the UNIP government, which could not apparently foresee the possibility of steep decreases in copper prices and plummeting production levels;

2) Lack of political will to pursue economic diversification;

3) The historic legacy of colonialism which focused on mineral extraction in Zambia, agricultural production in Zimbabwe and tourism in Malawi; and

4) Poor implementation of the privatization process which led to the collapse of many non-mining sectors.


8. Industrial and Trade Strategy

An appropriate industrial and trade strategy is a critical element in our quest for sustainable and enhanced socio-economic development. From 1964 to 1991, our country was preoccupied with the implementation of "import-substitution" policies aimed at promoting the use of local inputs and the local manufacture of products traditionally imported into the country in order to reduce the demand for foreign exchange to import foreign products and inputs.

From 1992 to date, there has been a seemingly unplanned and slight shift toward an "export-oriented" strategy, whose emphasis is to promote the production of non-traditional exports (NTEs)—that is, commodities initially constituting only a small proportion of Zambia's export portfolio, if at all, which the Government has now decided to promote in its export drive. Let us consider the pros and cons of these two strategies.

1) Import Substitution: This is advantageous for a number of reasons; first, the local production of previously imported commodities benefits from an already existing local market for such commodities. Also, it is usually much easier to protect local suppliers of import substitutes from foreign competition and ensure that they have a stable local customer base than to aid them in gaining access to export markets. Moreover, import substitution can be a viable means of lessening Zambia's economic dependency on, and the linkage of its development prospects to the health of the economies of, foreign countries.

The major drawbacks with this strategy include the huge capital outlays required in setting up local industries to produce import substitutes, the greater unemployment which is likely to be brought about by the capital-intensive nature of the industries that may be set up, and the diseconomies of scale associated with creating industrial units to produce for a small and limited local market. Besides, import-substitute producers' dependence on imported capital and intermediate goods can lead to serious balance of payments (BOPs) problems.

Moreover, protected import-substitute suppliers can become lax and complacent and lead to gross inefficiency in protected "infant industries." Further, the opportunity cost associated with the concentration of resources in one industry is very high for a poor country.

2) An Export-Oriented Strategy: Advantages of this strategy include the economies of scale associated with local firms having access to a larger and unlimited potential market, and its potential to stimulate local industries to seek innovative ways and means of producing internationally competitive commodities.

Its major drawbacks emanate from the generally impermeable nature of export markets and, like the import-substitution strategy, the massive capital outlays needed to create a viable export industry, the high opportunity cost associated with the strategy, and the high level of unemployment which may result from the capital-intensive nature of an export-oriented industry.

3) A Strategy for Zambia: Zambia and other countries which have tried the import-substitution strategy have generally been unable to achieve desired end results. The export-oriented strategy, on the other hand, has generally proved to be potent in revamping a country's economy, as evidenced by the success story of the newly industrialized countries)—that is, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand—which have successfully used such a strategy.

Our beloved country, therefore, needs to pick a leaf from the tale of these countries and strive to export its way out of economic stagnation and despair by adopting an export-oriented trade and industrialization strategy.

However, we need to consider the prospect of providing for the protection of local "infant industries" over a stipulated period of time—that is, new and/or undeveloped business enterprises or groups of enterprises whose financial and competitive positions shall be ascertained to be weak and, therefore, incapable of competing effectively against strong foreign competitors in the local market.


9. National Competitiveness

To engender a steady flow of inventions, innovations and new product offerings, we shall create a stimulating environment for the conception of new ideas and products as follows:

1) Undertake a critical evaluation of existing policies, incentives, institutions, and educational programs designed to spur innovation and the generation of new forms of technology in order to identify those which have a greater potential to stimulate innovation, inventiveness and research and development (R&D);

2) Designate critical fields and areas where R&D is most desirable, since available resources are not adequate to support research projects that are presently of uncertain value to society;

3) Readily and adequately finance research projects (including projects by the Zambia Academy of Science), accept and utilize relevant and useful findings of the research projects that may be undertaken, and adopt recommendations that may be deemed to be useful for application in institutional settings;

4) Introduce a two-tier antitrust law designed to foster competition in the domestic market while simultaneously permitting and encouraging alliances among locally based business entities which venture in export markets so that they can develop innovative and technological competencies and become sturdy competitors in the international marketplace; and

5) Actively engage in multilateral R&D initiatives with willing countries worldwide through such arrangements as research institute "sisterships" and joint R&D pursuits.


10. South-South Cooperation

As maintained in the stipulations of the New African Initiative—which assumed the new name "New Partnership for African Development" or "NEPAD" in October 2001—most African countries (including Zambia) are small both in terms of population and per capita incomes. As a result, their limited markets do not provide attractive returns to potential investors.

And, among other effects, investments in agricultural, transportation, and other forms of essential infrastructure across uninhabited areas are inhibited. There is, therefore, a profound need for our country to maintain its current membership in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) in order to become more competitive and be in a better position to venture in the modern global economic system that is characterized by such powerful regional groupings as the European Union (EU), European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) blocs of countries.

There are many benefits associated with such membership:

1) The integration of national socio-economic systems can be a viable means by which cooperating countries can do away with the disadvantages of small size, and of making possible the attainment of desired levels of socio-economic development by exploiting both economies of scale and economies of scope;

2) The reduction or removal of trade barriers by cooperating countries can bring about a more competitive market regional environment;

3) The wider consumer and industrial markets created through integration of national economies can make it possible for cooperating countries to attract the foreign capital needed to boost business activity and increased levels of employment; and

4) The eventual creation of a monetary union can facilitate the creation of a larger and more stable financial market, eliminate exchange-rate variability, and eliminate the need for member-countries that may experience a decline in the demand for their export products to consider currency devaluations to make the export products competitive.


11. Wide and Genuine Consultation

There is a need for the government to seek the active involvement of the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU), Zambian Association of Manufacturers (ZAM), the Zambia Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ZFCCI), the Economic Association of Zambia (EAZ), and the Zambia Institute for Public Policy Analysis (ZIPPA) in the provision of decision inputs pertaining to commercial and industrial matters.

The involvement of such segments of Zambian society can make it possible for the government to generate sound socio-economic policies—policies which will make our beloved country to make a headway in its quest for heightened socio-economic development.

There is absolutely no reason why Zambia cannot create a socio-economic regime that can be emulated by other developing nations worldwide, given the fact that it is blessed with abundant natural endowments, including fertile soil, ideal weather conditions, an ideal system of perennial rivers, a wide range of wildlife, wide stretches of natural forests and grasslands, a wide assortment of mineral resources, and a sizeable population of peaceful and hard-working citizens.


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IMF on Zambia's Fiscal Deficit

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The recent IMF Article 4 report suggests that Zambia will again exceed its fiscal deficit set out in the Budget 2014 :
IMF stressed that the proposed 2014 budget does not take sufficient steps to start addressing the large fiscal deficit. The budget submitted to Parliament in October calls for a deficit of 6.2 percent of GDP in 2014, above staff’s recommendation of 5 percent. The budget aims to increase domestic revenue by about 1.3 percent of GDP, mainly through non tax measures (including bringing revenue from FRA and other government agencies on budget, raising road tolls, and introducing a surcharge on money transfers).

Contrary to [IMF] advice, the [Zambia] budget proposes raising the Personal Income Tax (PIT) tax-free threshold to K3,000 from the current 2,200, which will generate a revenue loss of about 1 percent of GDP [Under the new PIT tax-free threshold, only about 33 percent of employees in the formal sector are expected to pay income taxes]. The budget also proposes a wage freeze for 2014 and 2015, as well as a net recruitment freeze for 2014 and limits FRA activities to maintaining a strategic reserve.

In addition to the higher than desirable planned deficit, there are substantial downside risks to the proposed 2014 budget. Based on available information, [IMF] estimates that revenue and spending policies in the budget would produce a deficit of 7.4 percent of GDP, about 1 percent of GDP higher than budgeted. [The deficit could be significantly higher if the increase in non tax revenue falls short of the authorities’ ambitious projections]

Moreover, the proposed wage and hiring freezes will be difficult to achieve given opposition from unions. Even modest increases in wages and new recruitments could incur additional spending of 1–1½ percent of GDP. To reduce the proposed deficit to 5 percent of GDP, staff recommended further measures [refrain from raising the tax-free threshold; Starting to raise corporate income tax (CIT) rates on low-taxed sectors ; postponing some infrastructure projections; and, reducing intergovernmental transfers]

(Source: IMF Article 4 Report 2013, Paras 17-18])
Once again the key picture here seems to be the Budget is increasingly not worth paper it is written on. It is particularly noticeable that the IMF believes, “the deficit could be significantly higher if the increase in non tax revenue falls short of the authorities’ ambitious projections”.

I suspect that is given because most of the non-tax revenue includes the “exceptional revenue” figure which is essentially a holding number that GRZ has failed to justify. On top of that a lot of revenues has been projected from the not fully implemented toll roads and also the land audit. Government has also already moved to reverse some of the hiring and wage freezes. In addition there non-budgeted spending commitments being made already e.g. INDECO, new stadiums.

Some people have raised legitiminate questions on why the IMF analysis matters. It matters because no one else is is in position to take an indepth look at our finances than the IMF and World Bank because GRZ is not very open to anyone except the IMF and World Bank. The Bretton Woods institutions are able to look underneath the covers and see the rottenness. Until GRZ becomes more transparent to its own people and we have fully fledged research institutions it is foolish to ignore IMF and World Bank analysis on the many pressing issues.

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Chikwanda is Wrong

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It appears that Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda is addicted to intellectual and moral error. Here is what he said recently in the Post on mining companies and borrowing :
"...we are putting in place measures to generate enough revenue so that we can avoid borrowing. Of course, some people are saying windfall taxes for the mines but that is a 'fetish' which some people want to hang on to whether it is logical or not. We do understand that contribution of the mining sector is very low at five per cent but we shouldn't just look at taxes; there are other factors like having the mines generating 70 per cent of foreign exchange and creating jobs. Ideally, we want to see the mines contributing about 10 per cent and ZRA is being strengthened to ensure efficient revenue collection." (The Post)
This is economic bumbling. Such language does not mean anything, but designed to fool the economic illiterate. Of course people are easily fooled because his statement has gone unchallenged for over a week! So, what do we make of the latest Chikwanomics?

Before I answer that question let me just say that it is appalling to see Chikwanda using bad language about Zambians again. He starts off by saying that people demanding the windfall tax have a "fetish". A fetish is defined by most dictionaries as "a form of sexual desire in which gratification is linked to an abnormal degree to a particular object, item of clothing, part of the body, etc".

I don't think this is an acceptable use of language by a minister. There's no sexual gratification or unbridled excitement involved in those who have demanded it. Now if people start insulting him and call him all sorts of names, he will turn round and say he is 80 years old and a grandad. He will also say people don't have any respect for his office. When it is clear that this use of language is very demeaning to others. We must learn to disagree honestly and respectfully.

Let's get back to the question, it is again clear Chikwanda has no understanding of basic economics, and that is no insult because not everyone wishes to understand economics. He says that mining companies already benefits ordinary Zambians through "foreigh exchange" earnings. How is that a benefit to anyone? In what meaningful economic sense is foreign exchange an end in itself to ordinary Zambians? In what sense does it result in an increase in social welfare to qualify as a benefit?

This is a old way of thinking from UNIP times. It seems that in Zambia 'earning Forex' has, since the 1980s'"Forex shortage", been seen as a 'benefit'. But we need to get over such economic folly and recognise that foreign exchange is not additional income. It is part of total money supply held in a different currency. To have forex you give up your Kwacha, so your total remains the same. It is embarrassing that this even needs explaining!

As if that is not bad enough, he then says the other benefit is that mining companies are "creating jobs". This logic is actually borrowed from President Banda who once forcefully said, "there is little point in taking in a few million dollars in tax if thousands of jobs are lost as a result". According to our politicians any appraisal of Zambia's mining policies must account for the allegedly huge benefits she receives from job creation.

That posture is misleading because it is built on incomplete understanding of the value of jobs in an economy. New jobs are only valuable if the jobs created are strictly additional to the national economy. The mining jobs he is referring are increasingly simply diverted from elsewhere. This happens largely due to skills shortage which leads to the same workers moving to better jobs, or more common in Zambia we import workers while Zambian graduates languish without jobs or end-up not working in an area they specialise in.

This is clear because we continue to see not only expatriates come in from abroad but also workers from urban areas move to North Western province to take newer jobs, without corresponding reduction in urban unemployment. We also continue to see that mining is becoming more mechanised so the jobs impact will continue to be limited. One wonders what price Chikwanda is willing to pay just to have a few non-additional jobs that may not last for long!

But even when such jobs are additional we must then ask : are workers benefiting as they should? The truth is that the quality of a large portion of mining jobs has been largely poor. This is demonstrated by the constant tragic loss of lives. One of the unspoken tragedies over the last decade is how many of our people continue to die due to the general disregard for lives by many mining companies. It has stopped becoming news.

Which brings us to the "quality" dimension. It is not just any job creation that matters, but a high quality mining job. In Zambia many of these "mining jobs" are full of casualised workers. Casualisation has come with poor wages. This has occurred through two complementary routes.

First, the opportunity to have casual workers has provided an incentive to mining companies to get rid of contracted workers and hire casual employees. This has often led to reduction in contracted workers and reduced their bargaining power. Mining union power is being eroded as casualisation amplifies - the wages of contracted workers have therefore remained stagnant. Secondly, casualisation has reduced the opportunities for long term contracted work. The overall result is that the quality of employment from additional mining investment is generally poor.

Causal workers have no long term pension benefits to speak of. This is clearly a concern because many of these casual workers tend to be ex-miners. Without long term pension security there's no transfer of wealth across generations and many people become again dependent on the state. The modern day mining worker is a casual worker living and working for today to support his family, but no security for tomorrow.

The "new jobs" also comes with poor labour rights. This is particularly pertinent for many employees of Chinese mining companies who are known to have been denied meaningful union rights. When the issue of jobs is raised, Zambians must surely ask - of what quality? Our mining workers can now be added to the list of losers from the current mining policy, alongside mining communities and the country as a whole. It is development Jim, but not as we know it!

In light of the above, it is amazing Chikwanda is now content with borrowing and meekly asking mining companies increase contribution to 10% of revenue from a depleting resource. And he hopes to achieve this by ZRA "being strengthened". Quite staggering. Chikwanda says it is unfair to ask more from mining companies than 10%. I say it is a crime to require anything less. When are we going to end this soft bigotry of low expectations?

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Stadia Mania Zambia

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Government is pressing ahead with construction of more stadiums in Livingstone and Mansa. The construction of a new stadium in Livingstone will start in the first quarter of 2014.  The Mansa stadium plans were revealed by Home Affairs Deputy Minister Nixon Chilangwa as a personal promise from Mr Sata. Mansa was allegedly chosen because of its "readily available abundance of good accommodation" (Source : ZANIS).

These latest stadium initiatives are coming off the back of ongoing construction in Mongu and the pending completion of Heroes Stadium in Lusaka. Government has already slated Solwezi for a stadium having completed preliminary studies and drawn a strategic plan for the project.

Government believes that building sports stadiums is a key way of "taking development to the people". The new "provincial stadiums" all cost in excess of US$50m each. Levy Mwanawasa Stadium (LMS) at a cost of $70m and Heroes Stadium at a cost of $94m. The Chinese contributed to funding LMS but the rest of the cost has been picked up by tax payers.

With no new foreign contributions the new stadiums in Mongu, Mansa, Livingstone and Solwezi are all to be funded by Zambian taxpayers. The stadiums make poor business sense to the private sector that is why they have never been built. Presumably it is only a matter of time before people in Eastern, Northern and Muchinga demand a stadium each.

No one knows when this building of stadiums frenzy will stop. What we know is that the costs for such projects is staggering and GRZ is essentially living off borrowed money. We also know that these are are not projects where you expect to recoup the money in the future. If the LMS experience is anything to go by, GRZ financial support is critical to sustain them, even on the richer Copperbelt.

LMS is currently cash strapped. It has been surviving off a government grant that meets only half of its financial deficit. It is failing to narrow the gap and this will become harder as the facility becomes older and newer stadiums take away some of the football business. It is a stadium where even the water supply is unreliable leading to health and hygienic problems. The facility ideally needs boreholes but again - there's no money.

The design of these stadiums is also worrying. LMS lacks indoor sports facilities for basketball, volleyball or badminton. This means the stadium is rarely used as a general sports stadium. Most of the time it is just a white elephant as far as developing sports goes. Management wants to build these facilities but there's no money. The other stadiums are being built with similar challenges.

As the government is bent on building these stadiums at any cost, it is vital it addresses the basic issues. Top of the pile is to ensure there's a legal framework to regulate the running of the facilities as commercially-driven entities so as to make them self reliant, and reduce political interference. Similarly all stadiums will need better ticketing to maximise the sale of tickets at the Stadium. But that too needs money.

When all is said and done the bottom line is that these investments are poor value for money as social infrastructure projects. You can put Bill Gates in charge of these stadiums it will still be poor value for money to build them for two reasons. First, there's insufficient demand. The problem is that Zambia does not have high quality sports events that people would pay for regularly to be hosted at these many stadiums. The business model is broken without continuous government grants. Secondly, there are betters ways of spending money to reduce poverty than building stadiums. Should borrowed money really be spent on football, when people are have no health referral systems?

All of these issues of course highlight a key problem at the heart of policy making in Zambia today : it is economically bankrupt. There's a lack of application of economic analysis. This is a key reason why investments being made in Zambia are failing to grow the economy in double digits and income inequality is at unprecedented levels. It is also why we continue to be one of the poorest countries in the world, in spite of never experiencing natural or man-made tragedies.

This state of affairs is of course due to the limited demand from the public for evidence based policy. The government won't do what the people don't demand. At present Zambians just see a stadium and money spent on it and they think its development. Questions about value for money, alternative uses, economic rationale, etc do not cross their minds. Also government does not properly consult. Why would they, when people seem content with the status quo?

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

The Auditor General's Report for 2012

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Most pleased again to lay our hands on the heavily trailed Auditor General's report on the accounts for the financial year ended 31st December 2012. As always, well worth the read, and huge thanks to a friend who tracked the soft copy for our benefit. When I have read through it I will flag up any points worthy of note. 



AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

IMF on Zambia's Poor Financial Management

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The recent IMF Article 4 report paints a bleak picture of Zambia's poor public financial management :
"...The recent [IMF] assessment found a deterioration in [Zambia’s] Public Financial Management (PFM) , including reporting and quality control. Procurement practices have also deteriorated, with single-source contracts for some large projects. While the rollout of the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) has continued, its implementation, as well as that of the Treasury Single Account (TSA), has been weak, and only release-based fiscal data are available. In addition, consolidation of financing data with the Bank of Zambia (BOZ) needs to be improved..."

"....IMF stressed the importance of stepping up PFM reform to support fiscal consolidation and improve budget planning and implementation. Staff underlined the importance of (i) enhancing budget credibility and consistency between the National Development Plan, Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, and annual budget; (ii) improving fiscal data as well as forecasts by enhancing the macro fiscal framework; (iii) expanding the coverage of the TSA by closing line ministries’ accounts at commercial banks; (iv) improving collaboration between units at the Ministry of Finance, and with the BOZ, to produce fiscal data based on expenditures rather than releases; (v) strengthening IFMIS implementation and controls; and (vi) providing additional resources to the Accountant General’s Department to support these reforms..."

(Source: IMF Article 4 Report 2013, Paras 21-22)
I remember last year suggesting that Finance Minister Chikwanda has been presiding over incompetence, I was told I was playing politics. We need to increasingly learn to listen to each other. There's a rottenness at the heart of Zambia's public financial management that even Noah would struggle to keep the ship afloat! 

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

The Proposed Creation of INDECO

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Editor's note: This is a guest post by Henry Kyambalesa (PhD), a resident contributor to Zambian Economist. He is a Zambian academic currently residing in Colorado, USA. This article is a response to comments received by the author on his previous piece published here. 
From the late 1960s to 1991, the Zambian economy was managed by means of socialist state policies, which barred both local and foreign private inves tors from certain commer cial and indus trial sec tors of the econo my. Dr. Kenneth D. Kaunda made the policy pronounce ments which ushered in an era of both parastatal and state enter prises in his April 1968, August 1969, and November 1970 addresses to the Nation al Council of the United National Independence Party.

Naturally, the monopolistic position enjoyed by state and parastatal companies culminated in com placence and gross ineffi cien cy because, in the absence of competi tion, they appar ently did not find it necessary to seek or use innovations and technological inven tions that would have improved the quality and quantity of their outputs.

This, in part, prompt ed the next govern ment of the late President Frederick J. T. Chiluba to embark on economic reforms upon his inaugu ration in November 1991. The reforms were designed to ensure that investment laws were clear, transparent, and accessible. These reforms included the following:
  • Abolition of price controls;
  • Abolition of exchange rate controls;
  • Privatization of state-owned companies;
  • Liberalization of interest rates;
  • Provision for 100% repatriation of profits;
  • Removal of quantitative restrictions on imports; and
  • Removal of restrictions on investment in all sectors of the country's economy.
The reforms were designed to create a market-based economy—a private-sector-driven economy.
What, then, are the negative effects associated with the proposed resurrection of the defunct Industrial Development Corporation (INDECO or IDC)?

First, it will reverse the benefits of the privatization of state-owned enterprises, which, according David Chilipamushi, has stimulated private investment, has given econom ic power to a greater number of people through stock owner ship, has promoted com petition and consequently encouraged efficiency in com merce and industry, has beefed up government coffers through the sale of govern ment hold ings in state companies, and has eased the financial burden of state companies on the public treasury.

Second, it is likely to culminate in increased public-sector borrow ing and government spend ing to finance its operations, and the operations of its subsidiaries, especially in times when it will not be able to generate profits.

Third, it will inevitably compel the government to re-introduce a regime of price controls. In this regard, allow me to state Murray Sanderson's view concerning one of the adverse effects of price controls. In his view,
"Price con trols have the effect of discourag ing supply while en couraging demand. The inevita ble result is scarcity of commodi ties; and when there is scarcity, you always get people who buy up commodities wherever they can and resell them on the black mar ket. In Zambia, we call them 'black marke teers.' It is a useful term, for it puts the blame upon them rather than the authori ties."
Fourth, it is likely to culminate in rampant shortages of commodities, smuggling, and stunted economic growth like the INDECO of the UNIP era—effects which are commonly associated with socialist policies. The infamous long queues for essential commodities like sugar and cooking oil during the UNIP era, which would start building up as early as 03:00 hours even without the assurance that everyone in the queue would eventually buy the commodities they needed, are still fresh in the minds of those who endured the economic hardships of such an era.

Fifth, it is likely to be an enormous consumer of our beloved country's meager foreign exchange reserves, like the defunct INDECO, and also lead to the rationing of foreign exchange and the re-introduction of exchange rate controls.

Sixth, it will certainly put our country at odds with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and our development partners—institutions and countries which have worked so hard in bolstering our efforts at meeting the development needs of our country and the needs and expectations of the majority of our people since 1991.

That will leave only profit-seeking commercial creditors to lend us money at exorbitant interest rates!

Seventh, it is certainly going to stifle competi tion and innova tion in com merce and industry in the national economy. By and large, "competi tion," according to the Union Bank of Switzer land (quoted by J. A. Reinecke and others), provides "the incentive to do better," because it prompts suppliers to become more innovative in order to satisfy the changing and divergent needs and expectations of consum ers in an efficient manner.

Besides, heightened competition in a coun try's economy can lead to lower prices, high-quality products, and greater variety and abun dance of products in the economy. Moreover, competition generally cures the problem of black markets since it entices suppliers to increase their outputs in order to benefit from economies of scale, thereby saturating a country's markets with a wide range of products.

And eighth, the omnibus monopoly is likely to play a significant role in driving our country from a potentially wealthy nation to a nation saddled with unprecedented socio-economic malaise like its predecessor.

The disadvantages pertaining to the INDECO proposal which I have summarized above are real, and they outweigh any theoretical, ideological, and/or philosophical arguments for (or advantages of) such a proposal.

In all, history should offer us guidance on this matter. Socialist policies are simply a pain in the neck! There is, therefore, no justification for re-introducing an ideology that economically traumatized our people from the late 1960s to 1991.

What our beloved country needs now is the creation of what may be referred to as a "social welfare state"—that is, a dynamic free-market economy that has a human face; or, more precisely, a socio-economic setting that simultaneously provides for a highly competitive business system and an effective mechanism for re-distributing wealth to the needy.

Countries which have succeeded in meeting the basic needs and aspirations of the majority of their people—such as Australia, the United States of America, Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands (Holland), and Germany—are essentially social welfare states!

In our quest to improve the livelihoods of the majority of our people, therefore, it is perhaps important to keep in mind the following caveats regar ding the pursuit of socio-econo mic development:
"The reality is that the economy does not grow from political slogans ... [b]asic require ments for eco nomic growth are peace and stability, free enter prise, imagi native entrepre neur ship, efficient and frugal govern ment, innovative and caring manage ment, a well-educated and motivated work force, and a lot of hard work."—F. W. de Klerk, former President of South Africa.
There is an urgent need for national leaders to re-define the roles of their governments away from direct involvement in commercial and industrial activities toward the pro vision of inducements, guarantees and essential public services and facilities to their primary stakeholders.—Adapted from AlassaneOuattara, current President of Côte d'Ivoire.
There is absolutely no reason why Zambia cannot create a socio-economic regime that can be emulated by other developing nations worldwide, given the fact that it is blessed with abundant natural endowments, including fertile soil, ideal weather conditions, an ideal system of perennial rivers, a wide range of wildlife, wide stretches of natural forests and grasslands, a wide assortment of mineral resources, and a sizeable population of peaceful and hard-working citizens.
____________________________

Bibliography and References

Chilipamushi, D.M., "Investment Promo tion and the Privatiza tion Process in Zambia," in Deassis, N.A. and Yikona, S.M., editors, The Quest for an Enabling Environ ment for Development in Zambia: Selected Readings (Ndola, Zambia: Mission Press, 1994), p. 16.

Klerk, F. W. de, former South African president, quoted in Yalemana, S., "Chiluba Looking for Security in South Africa," Southern Africa Political and Economic Monthly, September 1993, p. 16.

Kyambalesa, Henry, Socio-Economic Challenges: The African Context (Trenton, New Jersey: Africa World Press, 2004).

"Mugabe Returns Zimbabwe to Socialism," Independent Online,http://www.iol.co.za/October 15, 2001.

Nyakutemba, E., "Chiluba Plunges into the Market," New African, May 1992, p. 32.

Ouattara, A.D., "Africa: An Agenda for the 21st Century," Finance and Development, Volume 36/Number 1, March 1999, p. 4.

Pitelis, C. and Clarke, T., "Introduction: The Political Economy of Privatization," in Clarke, T. and Pitelis, C., editors, The Political Economy of Privatization(London: Routledge, 1993), p. 7.

Sanderson, M., quoted in Kyambalesa, H., Quotations of Zambian Origin, Second Edition (Lusaka, Zambia: Apple Books, 1996), p. 34.

Southern African Regional Poverty Network (SARPN), "Major Concerns Relating to the Zambian Economy: A Civil Society Perspective,"
http://www.sarpn.org.za/July 7, 2002.

Union Bank of Switzer landquoted by Reinecke, J.A. et al., Introduction to Business: A Contemporary View (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1989), pp. 17 and 27.

"Zimbabwe a Step Closer to Marxist-Style Economy," Independent Online,http://www.iol.co.za/October 17, 2001.

Democracy in Africa

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Editor's note : The article below is taken from VoxEU publication 'Democracy in Africa' by Thorvaldur Gylfason, a professor of economics at Iceland University. 
A man's admiration for absolute government is proportionate to the contempt he feels for those around him.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Until the second half of the 19th century, there were so few democratic states around the world that they could be counted on the fingers of one hand.

Under the auspices of the Polity IV Project, political scientists at the University of Maryland in the US have charted the progress of democracy since 1800, assessing democracy in terms of – among other measures – electoral competitiveness, openness, and popular participation.

Until 1850, autocratic or anocratic government was the rule, and democracy was a rare exception (see Figure 1). Anocratic rule (or oligarchic rule) is a system of government where power is vested in largely self-appointed political elites rather than in public institutions – a half-way house of sorts between democracy and autocracy. Without democracy, there was scant regard for human rights.

The second half of the 19th century saw change. By the dawn of the 20th century, the number of democracies had caught up with the number of autocracies – although anocracy remained the most common form of government. After World War II, the number of autocracies rose more rapidly than the number of democracies. Those were the years when the former Soviet Union and its satellite states cast a long shadow over Africa, where numerous new states declared independence one after another – severing their links with their erstwhile, mostly democratic, colonial powers without adopting democratic rule.

The tables were turned after 1970 when, in Europe, democracy returned to Greece, Portugal, and Spain, and made new advances in several developing countries. The pace quickened with the collapse of communism around 1990, when 25 new and mostly democratic states came into being. Today, there are only 20 autocratic states left in the world, compared with nearly 100 democracies and just over 50 anocracies (the figures refer to countries with 500,000 or more inhabitants). Democracy continues to win new adherents due to its clear advantages in terms of efficiency, fairness, and respect for human rights vis-à-vis autocracy and anocracy, where privileged elites exercise their political power without full regard for the public interest.

An important aspect of democracy is collective responsibility – we all have to accept and abide by democratic election results and other democratic decisions, whether we consider them right or wrong. The destiny of democratic nations is in the hands of their electorates. Democracy means, in the words of Lord George-Brown, Britain's Foreign Secretary in the 1960s, that "There shall be no one to stop us from being stupid if stupid we want to be."

Africa's changing landscape

Africa exhibits the same general pattern of rapid democratisation as the world at large (see Figure 2). As in Figure 1, democracy is measured by the Polity2 variable compiled by political scientists at the University of Maryland. In their words (original emphasis),
"The Polity conceptual scheme is unique in that it examines concomitant qualities of democratic and autocratic authority in governing institutions, rather than discreet [sic] and mutually exclusive forms of governance. This perspective envisions a spectrum of governing authority that spans from fully institutionalized autocracies through mixed, or incoherent, authority regimes (termed "anocracies") to fully institutionalized democracies. The "Polity Score" captures this regime authority spectrum on a 21-point scale ranging from -10 (hereditary monarchy) to +10 (consolidated democracy)."
In Figures 1 and 2, countries are classified as democratic if their Polity2 score is larger than or equal to 6, as open anocracies if their score lies in the range from 5 to 1, as closed anocracies if their score lies in the range from 0 to -5, and as autocratic if their score is smaller than or equal to -6. Hence, the 21-point scale of the Polity2 variable is divided nearly evenly among the four categories of government. In Figures 1 and 2, open and closed anocracies are treated as one category.

Figure 1. Global trends in governance, 1800-2012

Source: Polity IV Project.

Figure 2. African Trends in Governance, 1960-2012

Source: Author's computations based on data from the Polity IV Project.

For 30 years after 1960, the number of democracies in Africa stayed close to five or less, while the number of autocracies rose from 17 to 41. Following the collapse of communism in Europe, the 1990s saw a radical change in governance. The number of democracies in Africa rose from four to 17, while the number of autocracies fell down to single digits. Even so, in 2012 Africa had fewer democracies (17) than anocracies (30), and only a handful of autocracies (3).1 The political landscape of Africa has been transformed.

From democracy to growth

Many African countries have made significant economic progress in recent years, and Sub-Saharan Africa has been the world's most rapidly growing region (IMF 2013). Economic progress has been accompanied by important – albeit gradual – social advances. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility, measured by births per woman, decreased from 6.6 in 1960 to 5.2 in 2011 – a less marked decrease than in the Middle East and north Africa, where fertility fell from 6.9 in 1960 to 2.8 in 2011, in east Asia and the Pacific (from 5.4 to 1.8), or in Latin America and the Caribbean (from 6.0 to 2.2).

To take another example, life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa increased on average by 16 years, from 40 years in 1960 to 56 years in 2011 – a substantial increase, but still smaller than in the Middle East and north Africa, where life expectancy rose from 47 years to 72 years in the same period, in east Asia and the Pacific (from 48 to 75 years), and in Latin America and the Caribbean (from 56 to 74 years) (World Bank 2013). Longer lives in smaller families are good for economic growth. Smaller families go hand in hand with increased affordability of education.

Experience suggests that democracy is also good for growth through various channels, including more and better education. Despots sometimes feel threatened by too much education – as was the case, for example, in Congo under Belgian rule before 1960 – 'Pas d'élites, pas d'ennemis' ('No elites, no enemies'). In Eritrea, the diaries of an erstwhile Italian colonial governor describe a conscious policy of limited schooling to ensure local acquiescence (see Wrong 2006: 67). Democrats, by contrast, typically favour education – for its own sake, as well as because educated voters tend to support democrats rather than anocrats or autocrats. Democracy is good for education, and education is good for growth.

Empirical evidence also suggests that corruption generally thrives less well under democracy than under autocracy (see Gylfason 2012). Democratic rule is more conducive to the establishment of institutional structures and mechanisms that restrain corruption. Without adequate checks and balances, despots usually find it more alluring than democrats to engage in corrupt practices, and often manage to do so with impunity. Even so, corruption is rampant in some democracies, as documented by – among others – Transparency International and Gallup. Democracy tends to hinder corruption and help growth. In the words of Alexis de Tocqueville, "Despotism alone can provide that atmosphere of secrecy which favours crooked dealing and enables the freebooters of finance to make illicit fortunes" (de Tocqueville 1856).

Figure 3 illustrates the cross-country relationship between democracy and growth in 145 countries from 1960 to 2012. Democracy is measured by the average of the Polity2 variable in each country over the sample period. Growth is represented by the log purchasing power of gross national income in 2012, on the grounds that the level of current income reflects its rate of growth in the past.2 The use of only the end-of-period value of income for each country rules out reverse causation from growth to democracy. The relationship is significant in a statistical sense as well as in an economic sense – the slope of the regression line (0.12) suggests that a four-point increase in Polity2 (e.g. from 2 to 6) is associated with an increase in real per capita income by nearly a half (i.e. by 48%).

Figure 3. Democracy and Growth, 1960-2012

Source: Author's computations based on data from Polity IV Project and World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Democracy in America

Democracy can never be taken for granted. In 1943, there were only four democratic states in Europe: the UK, Ireland, Sweden, and Switzerland – where women did not get the vote until 1971.3 Democracy remains a distant dream in some parts of the world, and is in deep trouble in some other places where many might expect otherwise. In the US, in a direct affront against democracy, the Republican majority of the House of Representatives recently threatened but failed to force bankruptcy on the US federal government in an attempt to compel Congress and the President to reverse their earlier decision to provide health insurance to poor Americans. A possibly major catastrophe for the US economy and the world at large at the hands of a few rogue politicians was averted at the eleventh hour. Plainly, even in America, democracy has powerful enemies.

References

Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2012), "Development and Growth in Mineral-Rich Countries: Why Social Policy Matters", in Mineral Rents and the Financing of Social Policy: Opportunities and Challenges, ed. Katja Hujo, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
IMF (2013), "Country and Regional Perspectives", Chapter 2 in World Economic Outlook: Transitions and Tensions, October: 53–79.
de Tocqueville, Alexis (1856), The Old Regime and the French Revolution.
World Bank (2013), World Development Indicators.
Wrong, Michela (2006), I didn't do it for you: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation, New York: Harper Perennial.

1 The 51 countries included are Algeria, Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo Brazzaville, Congo Kinshasa, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The Polity IV data base does not include São Tomé and Príncipe and Seychelles, and has only two recent observations on South Sudan.
2 For more, see Gylfason (2012). Figure 3 is an update of one of the charts therein.
3 With fewer than 500,000 inhabitants, Iceland is not included – a democratic country where, at present, democracy is under siege by a parliament that refuses to respect the results of a national referendum in 2012 where 2/3 of the electorate expressed their support for a post-crash constitutional bill that parliament subsequently put on ice.

A guide to mining taxation in Zambia

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I was looking through my papers from last year and I discovered that I hadn't shared this very helpful guide to mining taxation on Zambia. If I remember correctly, it has a particularly good section on effective tax comparisons between Zambia and other countries.



AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Copper Colonialism in Zambia

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Foil Vedanta have today released a report (embedded below) on the operations of Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) in Zambia. The report reveals that, contrary to popular opinion in Zambia, Vedanta (KCM's parent company) is not Indian but wholly British owned and controlled, and is making large profits at KCM. The report demonstrates Vedanta's pattern of buying undervalued state companies, polluting, and operating without permission all over the world. It also reveals how investment companies like Blackrock have controlling interests in Zambian copper as key shareholders behind Zambia's biggest mining companies.

Foil Vedanta's(1) report 'Copper Colonialism – Vedanta KCM and the copper loot of Zambia'is a groundbreaking study of copper mining in Zambia, focusing on British mining company Vedanta, KCM's parent company. The report reveals that Vedanta made approximately $362 million, or 12.9% of their total group revenue, from KCM in 2013 (according to the company itself and analyst reports)(2). The authors, who visited Zambia in December, note the number of misconceptions about this company in Zambia – where Vedanta has created the perception that they are an Indian company, and are making such a loss at KCM that they may need to be rescued by the state. In fact KCM are one of the highest profit making subsidiaries of the parent company.

The report details how Vedanta, a FTSE 250 London based company which is 67.99% owned by Chairman Anil Agarwal via tax havens, bought KCM for a fraction of its true value, possibly losing the Zambian exchequer up to $1.4bn in total.(3) It goes on to record some of the environmental and social abuses of the company in Zambia – including pollution of the river Kafue in 2006 and 2010 which have led to ongoing health problems as extreme as deformed births and miscarriages in the Chingola area, as well as poor workers conditions and low pay. Vedanta's tax contributions in Zambia are close to zero, and they even brag that 50% of tax paid is via employees Pay As You Earn (PAYE). Vedanta hide these truths in Zambia by paying former journalists as PR agents to keep their image clean.

The authors demonstrate that this style of operation is a pattern for Vedanta across India and elsewhere, where they are consistently opposed by people's movements and under investigation by authorities for corruption and legal violations. In Chhattisgarh, India, they bought BALCO's bauxite refinery, smelter and mines for $89 million in 2001 when it was worth around $800 million. Vedanta Chairman Anil Agarwal is currently under investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigations in India over the original disinvestment of 51% of Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) to Vedanta for only $72 million, claiming the deal was considerably undervalued, and may have lost the exchequer hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

Vedanta's subsidiary Sesa Goa are accused of exporting 150 million tonnes of iron ore from Goa, India in 2010/11 while only declaring 7.6 million, their agreed export allowance. The report suggests that Vedanta may also be exporting considerably more copper than they claim in Zambia, as well as cobalt and other minerals, and recommends citizens monitoring of trucks leaving their facilities to estimate the true amounts.

The report also looks at the real interests behind mining companies in Zambia. Using shareholder information it shows that secretive investment company Blackrock have high percentages of shares in Vedanta, Glencore and First Quantum, Zambia's three biggest miners. Blackrock and JP Morgan are currently buying the majority of the worlds available copper to launch a futures market which will control the price of copper, giving them high returns on their investments while leaving copper producing nations in poverty.(4) The report also draws attention to foreign governments such as Norway and the UK, who play a duplicitous game of funding transparency and accountability projects on mining via NGOs and the Zambian government, while also profiting from the abuses of the very same mining companies.(5)

Author Samarendra Das says, "We were shocked to discover how little information Zambian authorities and communities have about their own resource and the companies exploiting it. Despite its role in the economy, copper is the elephant in the room in Zambia. This report aims to expose the real interests controlling Zambia's copper industry - from banks and investment firms to foreign governments and NGOs."

Co-author Miriam Rose states, "Mining companies are commonly called 'investors' in Zambia, but what they are doing is far from investment, it is short lived extraction and loot of resources, leaving behind only environmental and social damage which will be paid for by future generations. There is limited time left for Zambians to change the course of history, make links with peoples' movements opposing these policies elsewhere, and truly profit from this resource before it is all gone."

Notes :
  1. Foil Vedanta are a London based international solidarity group focusing on the activities of British mining company Vedanta. We link up global communities affected by Vedanta, and hold them to account in London. We are currently aiming to make the case for Vedanta to be de-listed from the London Stock Exchange for their human rights and corporate governance abuses.
  1. Excerpt from report (p.12):
KCM and other mining companies in Zambia don't publish their profits, even though the Zambian taxpayer has a share in most of them via ZCCM-IH. However Vedanta's 2013 annual report claims KCM produced 216,000 tonnes of copper in 2013. In the same year costs of production were valued at 255.1 US cents/lb, putting the total cost of production that year at $1.2 billion, which would constitute a profit of $362 million (at a current copper price of $7,300). Analysts reports from Global Data reveal that KCM made 12.19% of revenue for the entire Vedanta group in 2012 so they are certainly not doing too badly.
  1. Excerpt from report (p.6):
A 51% share in KCM was sold to Vedanta Resources for just $25 million, paid in cash, and $23million in deferred payments, in 200412. The deal was facilitated by Clifford Chance and Standard Chartered Bank13 (one of the main bookrunners and lenders to Vedanta Resources). Within three months Vedanta had already recouperated its initial investment, making $26 million. The banks also helped Vedanta secretly negotiate a call option allowing them the right to purchase Zambia Copper Investments' 28.4% share14, which they exercised in November 2005 (a year after their initial purchase), giving them the 79.4% monopoly they currently hold on KCM, while the Zambian government - via ZCCM-IH (their mining investment wing), own the remaining 20.6%. The Competition Commission was even rendered irrelevant by the Zambian government to allow Vedanta such a large majority share.
The price negotiated for the buyout of ZCI's remaining shares is not reported, but analysts at the time valued it between $250 million and $550 million, putting Vedanta's original 51% share at between $455 and $910 million, nine to eighteen times what Vedanta paid! This means the Zambian exchequer lost between $155 and $340 million in from the sale of 21.4% of ZCCMIH's shares alone. In response, ZCI's 33% French shareholders (grouped into a company called Sicovam SA) called the deal 'the most outrageous and scandalous ever seen in Africa for decades'.
This puts the value of the entire 79.4% share held by Vedanta at between $705 and $1460 million, losing the Zambian exchequer between $600 and $1400 million in undervalued assets.
  1. Excerpt from report (p.26):
Blackrock is the world's biggest asset management company, in charge of $4.1 trillion of assets (including much of Zambia's copper via its shares). It is bigger than any bank, insurance company or government fund, and is the majority shareholder in half of the world's 30 largest companies. It was set up by Larry Fink - a Washington insider who was named as a potential treasury secretary in the US. Blackrock, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are currently working together in an attempt to buy up 80% of available copper on behalf of investors, and hold it in warehouses. This will create a copper futures market enabling speculation, futures trading, and backing of new loans and funds.

In 2010 JP Morgan bought more than half of the available warehoused copper in a few weeks, leading to a spike in copper prices. Manufacturers and copper wholesalers warned the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that such a monopoly on copper would squeeze the market and send prices skyrocketing but under pressure from Blackrock and the banks the SEC approved their proposal.1 The aluminium futures market set up by Goldman Sachs, on which the copper takeover is modelled, is estimated to have cost consumers billions of dollars in price hikes, as market manipulations sent prices soaring.2

(5) See section on NGOs and civil society, p.30 of report.
The New York Times, July 21st 2013, 'Next up Copper.'

David Kocieniewski, New York Times, July 20, 2013. 'The House Edge: A Shuffle of Aluminum, but to Banks, Pure Gold'


(Source: Foil Vendata, 31 January 2014, Press Release)

Zambian Economist is 7 years old!

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Zambian Economist celebrates its 7th year anniversary today! On  1 February 2007 I begun to write! Thank you everyone for your continued support! It is fair to say if it was not for your support I would have stopped writing in the first month. Many have started and fallen off the way side! So, thank you again for keeping this going! I would particularly thank you those who have stayed with this from its early days - if you have please let me know, it would be great to hear from you. Thanks! Here is the first blog post I wrote on that very day of 1 February 2007 [the country was under President Mwanawasa].


After reading about the latest economic deal Zambia has signed with China, it’s clear that this partnership is here to stay. I cannot see how any future Zambia leader no matter how opposed he/she may be to China’s practices will be able to reverse the current arrangements that are being put in place between the current Government and China.

Simply put, we've already entered a situation where China has now raised the cost of Zambia reneging on her in the future. $800m in planned investment is a lot of money, not to mention the money already China has pumped into the economy.

Zambia is ever increasingly becoming reliant on China. And to make it worse or better (depending on which side of the political spectrum you belong to), the current Government will keep pressing on for a deeper relationship with China. So we are indeed a poor peasant girl stuck with a rich lover with many wives, because China indeed has many wives and many children too! The growth between China and Africa has continued to rise - and not all the money is coming to the peasant girl, and indeed questions remain on whether China's current growth is sustainable.

Zambians must recognise this fact and seek to address the next question – where to next? We cannot end the relationship, because with every gift we receive, we dig ourselves deeper into the hole. With that in mind, it becomes pointless for us to sit down and waste time analysing whether Mr Hu really loves us or whether he really cares about the peasant worker in a Chambishi area without medical insurance working in one of the Chinese firms.

At the core China is a rational economic agent seeking to maximise its own gains from this unequal of relationships. What should really concern us now is simple: How can the peasant girl Zambia get along better with the rich lover that is China? She has done well so far using her limited resources of copper to keep this rich lover, but how far before the lover becomes abuseful, and starts exerting more control?

Unfortunately, this is the difficult question our Government has now created, but has not yet been answered. Surely, Government owes it the people to do so, and to demonstrate that there's indeed in all her economic policies towards China, a Plan B. For now we live in fear of the day the lover becomes abuseful.

(Zambian Economist, 1 February 2007)

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Prices are rising!

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Life continues to be challenging for many of our people. And all the signs are pointing to even greater challenges in the future as things become even more expensive.

The price of maize is up!

A 25kg of breakfast mealie is now in the region of K70 - K80 in many parts of the country. This is at least K25k - K30 more than it cost last year (K55) or 40-50% increase in the price, far above the general rise in inflation of 7%. The price of maize had been expected to reduce to around K65 (20% higher than last year) following a GRZ directive and FRA releasing 50,000 tonnes on the market and A , but in many urban areas retailers have maintained it at around K75. (Source : Post, Daily Mail, MuviTV)

The reason for the high prices varies depending on who you talk to. Government blames millers and retailers for encouraging artificial price fixing and illegal exports of maize. The farmers and millers say Government is failing to manage the agriculture sector. The millers have said the increase in prices of mealie-meal is as a result of the increase in the cost of maize, which the FRA is selling at K1,700 per metric tonne. Any reduction in the FRA price will lead to more losses for FRA.

The price of water is also up!

The National Water Supply and Sanitation Council (NWASCO) recently approved an average of 10 per cent tariff adjustment for all water utilities countrywide effective February 1, 2014 on a three-year tier system to January 31, 2015.tier system to January 31, 2015. This means for areas and customers the increase is sharper than 10%. For example, Nkana Water and Sewerage Company has increased its prices by over 15 percent for domestic metered customers while that of commercial customers is above nine percent (Source: Times, Daily Mail)

These increases come against a backdrop of poor water and sanitation services. There also appears little proper consultation by NWASCO before the increases. In Livingstone SWASCO has been failing to provide water in many areas of Livingstone on 24-hour basis while some areas only receive water in the night, yet the city is near the Zambezi River. The situation is similar in many parts of the country. Many water utilities are riddled with corruption, poor management and poor regulation.. The entire sector remains on life support surviving mainly on foreign aid and sporadic government grants. .

The price of electricity is also going up!

The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has completed reviewing proposed tariff increases by ZESCO. The proposal is to increase tariffs by an average of 26 percent effected anytime in 2014. In November 2013, Energy Minister Christopher Yaluma indicated that the approved increased in ZESCO electricity tariffs would be below the proposed 26 percent increment. The ERB has not formally announced the exact tariffs but it is thought that the electricity prices will soon go up by at least 20%. (Source : QFM)

The general picture for urban consumers suggests that those public service who danced in face of the wage increases (within the range of 4% - 200%, with an average increase of 50%) are increasingly discovering that their wages are being swallowed up the rise in prices of key commodities. I suppose the silver lining is that 70% of the population live on less than $2 or day have no access to good sanitation and water or electricity. So increases in those areas wont affect them. They still have to buy maize though.

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Government by design

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Editor's note : The article below is taken from McKinsey's publication 'Government by design: Four principles for a better public sector'  by Diana Farrell and Andrew Goodman of the McKinsey Center for Government. The issues are global but very relevant to the Zambian context. 
Governments everywhere face a daunting paradox. On the one hand, they operate in an increasingly complex environment and must deliver on an expanded set of policy objectives. In a world characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty, rapid social change, and technological innovation, citizens' expectations of what government ought to deliver are rising. On the other hand, governments are hampered by unsustainable debt burdens and shrinking budgets. The ratio of general government debt to gross domestic product for member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) now exceeds 100 percent.11. McKinsey analysis based on Economic Outlook No. 93, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, May 2013, oecd-ilibrary.org. Meanwhile, public trust in government is eroding.22.2012 Edelman Trust Barometer, Edelman, January 2012. Against this backdrop, not only must governments do more with less; they must do so in highly visible ways, if they are to regain the faith of their constituents.

The good news is that governments can deliver the performance their citizens need and expect—and, indeed, some have begun to do so. Based on the McKinsey Center for Government's research into hundreds of cases of government innovation around the world, our on-the-ground experience working with governments, and numerous conversations with public-sector leaders and thinkers, we conclude that what works today is a more disciplined, systematic approach to solving public-sector management problems—in short, government by design.

Government by design calls on public-sector leaders to favor the rational and the analytical over the purely ideological, and to be willing to abandon tools and techniques that no longer work. Four principles are at its core: the use of better evidence for decision making, greater engagement and empowerment of citizens, thoughtful investments in expertise and skill building, and closer collaboration with the private and social sectors. Each of these principles is central to creating more effective yet affordable government.

The value at stake is staggering: prior McKinsey research suggests that improvements in government performance could amount to as much as $1 trillion in increased productivity and cost savings by 2016 in the G8 countries alone.33. Francois Bouvard et al., "Better for less: Improving public-sector performance on a tight budget," (PDF–129 KB), July 2011. The Group of Eight (G8) is a forum for governments of eight of the world's largest national economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and United States. The European Union is also represented. Through government by design, public-sector leaders can move beyond partisan debates and politicized headlines, and make true progress on society's most pressing problems.

Better evidence for decision making

Results-oriented governments are increasingly making use of hard data and statistical analysis to inform decisions. We have seen three forms of evidence-based decision making in government:
Collecting credible performance data
Governments must decide what to measure and how, always with an eye on the overall goal of the program or initiative. One of the goals of a government-wide transformation effort in France between 2009 and 2012 was to reduce the perceived complexity of dealing with the government. As part of this initiative, the government identified 50 life events—such as getting married or starting a business—during which citizens have to interact with public agencies. It then sought to simplify each of these interactions, all the while measuring citizen satisfaction to track whether the changes were actually working.44. François-Daniel Migeon, "Transforming government in France,"Government Designed for New Times, October 2012. Similarly, as part of a broader open government initiative, the city of Moscow is beginning to publish a dashboard of around 50 key performance indicators relating to the city's health, education, safety, business conditions, and transportation outcomes. The dashboard acts as a scorecard for citizens, showing the city's performance against these metrics.
Benchmarking consistently against peers
National and international benchmarks are powerful but underutilized as inputs into decision making, particularly in a world where governments everywhere face similar issues and no single government excels across the board. On almost any metric—from high-school graduation rates to unemployment to per capita health-care costs—there are wide variations in government performance across the OECD and even within large federal countries. An economist would say this inconsistency is to be expected since monopolies, absent any competitive pressure, tend to deliver suboptimal performance. But every government's best practices can be useful to other governments and can motivate change. The introduction of the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) study, for instance, caused a "PISA shock" that spurred reform in countries including Germany and the United States and subsequently highlighted a range of best practices in education (such as the building and nurturing of a high-quality teacher pipeline).55. Simon Breakspear, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 71: "The policy impact of PISA: An exploration of the normative effects of international benchmarking in school system performance," February 2012.
Using data to design and improve interventions
Reliable, clean data can inform the design or refinement of government initiatives. The UK government's Behavioural Insights Team was formed explicitly to use data about citizen behavior to improve the effectiveness of government interventions. The team sets up randomized control trials (long used in the medical field but only now gaining favor in the public sector) to test the impact of small changes, like adjustments in the language and tone of the letter that the tax department sends to delinquent taxpayers. In its first two years, the team paid for itself 22 times over in savings. It has identified interventions expected to save the UK government at least £300 million over the next five years.66.Annual Update 2011–2012, Behavioural Insights Team, September 20, 2012. And the unit has started to advise other governments on how to use data and randomized control trials to improve government performance.

Evidence-based decision making creates real value, both financial and nonfinancial, for citizens. Done right, it allows government to assess policy and program effectiveness, measure progress, and engage in a more rational public debate on sensitive topics.

Greater engagement and empowerment of citizens

Innovative governments are making it easier for citizens to access public services. And the most forward-thinking governments are starting to master the shift from simply administering services to regularly engaging and empowering citizens, involving them in the design—and, in some cases, the delivery—of these services. This shift is not just about increasing choice and well-being; it's also about boosting government productivity, with the help of technology and the use of open data.
Using innovative channels to make services more citizen-centric
The private sector's responsiveness to customer demands has led to heightened public expectations of government. Because people can do their banking and shopping online, for example, they expect to be able to apply for driver's licenses and submit tax returns online as well. Governments are investing to meet these expectations. The Estonian government's e-services portal, visited by more than 10,000 users every day, allows residents to perform an ever-expanding array of tasks including applying for unemployment benefits, paying taxes, registering new companies, and even voting.77. Eric Braverman and Mary Kuntz, "Innovation in government: India and Estonia," June 2012. But being citizen-centric isn't just about the Internet: Australia, for instance, has pioneered mobile government offices—satellite-equipped trucks—that serve as a one-stop-shop for government services for people living in remote areas.
Soliciting citizen input to improve public services
Innovative governments are creating new ways for citizens to make their voices heard, giving them the ability to provide input into regulations, budgets, and the provision of services. Regulations.gov, one of the US government's earliest e-government programs, allows citizens to search, view, and comment on federal regulations. Users post more than 27,000 comments on the site every month. Other governments are going even further to solicit citizen feedback: Iceland in 2010 chose 950 citizens at random to participate in the drafting of a new constitution, a significant example of "deliberative democracy" at work. And the city of Cologne, Germany, has used participatory budgeting: residents helped decide how to allocate a portion of the municipal budget.
Tapping citizens to help deliver better services at a lower cost
Citizens can play an important role not just in the design but also in the delivery of public services. New York City's 311 system allows residents to report nonemergency complaints—about things like potholes or garbage collection—via a website, a mobile app, text messaging, Skype, or phone. Thanks to the Open311 platform, a free web-based application programming interface, the city now processes 60 percent of service requests online, lowering transaction and issue-resolution costs. Open311 platforms have been rolled out to other cities as well, including San Francisco and Chicago. These platforms, along with third-party apps such as SeeClickFix, empower citizens to do some of the work that has traditionally fallen to municipal employees: citizens in effect act as city inspectors. In a similar vein, the mayors of Boston and Philadelphia have each created an Office of New Urban Mechanics, which works with residents to fund and launch promising projects that address civic needs. Citizens—not government employees—come up with the ideas and do much of the work, but also reap the benefits.

The trend toward participatory government will only gain in strength. And by engaging and empowering citizens to codesign and codeliver public services, governments can not only better meet citizens' needs; they can also shift some of the burden of accountability from the state to the people, allowing high-quality delivery of services in an environment of constrained resources.

Investments in expertise and skill building

Mission-driven employees are among the public sector's most valuable assets. Unfortunately, many governments fail to get the most out of their people—they don't invest enough in developing their employees' skills and expertise. For instance, although government agencies have started to embrace "lean" principles such as value-stream mapping and Six Sigma process improvement, many are unable to sustain the impact from these initiatives because they haven't been deliberate about building internal capabilities. In a 2012 survey of 974 public-sector leaders, we found that only about 39 percent of large-scale public-sector projects fully met their targets.88. Stacey Dietsch et al., "Leading transformational change in the public sector," McKinsey Center for Government, May 2013.

Sometimes, the problem is that governments invest in the wrong kind of training. Research has demonstrated that adults learn six to seven times more through practice and feedback than through lectures, yet far too many public-sector training programs consist of classroom sessions or self-study modules.
Smart government institutions are ensuring that their employees develop and hone the skills that truly matter—whether those are core competencies, sector-specific capabilities, or broader expertise in strategy and risk management.
Using adult-learning practices to build core capabilities
Management skills are crucial to the success of any government program. A study by McKinsey and Oxford University revealed that more than two-thirds of budget overruns in large-scale IT projects are due to managerial—not technical—shortcomings.99.Reference Class Forecasting Survey, McKinsey and Company and Oxford University, 2012. Best-practice government agencies are investing to make sure their managers are equipped with the requisite know-how. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development's Office of Multifamily Housing Programs recently undertook a capability-building program that included a series of process improvements, the introduction of new managerial routines, and intensive coaching on problem-solving skills. The program yielded a reduction of more than 70 percent in the agency's backlog of housing applications and a 35 percent productivity improvement. When Germany's Federal Labor Agency undertook a similar program, the agency's "customers" benefited: their average duration of unemployment fell from 164 days to 136 days. The Swedish Migration Board's capability-building efforts led to a reduction in average processing times from 267 days to 85 days, saving more than $160 million annually.
Developing specialized capabilities in critical sectors
Governments' investments in building expertise in particularly important or challenging vertical sectors, such as infrastructure or transportation, can have significant payoffs. Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway (MTR) developed deep expertise in core mass-transit capabilities such as operations, maintenance, and property management as a result of the government's investment and rail-led transportation strategy. This expertise has helped the MTR, which is still 77 percent government-owned, to win contracts to maintain, operate, and improve metro systems in Australia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Another increasingly important subsector is cybersecurity: recognizing this, the US Department of Homeland Security is collaborating with universities including Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Maryland to train a pipeline of approximately 30,000 professionals in cybersecurity.
Sharpening strategic and risk-management skills
Governments face large, intractable challenges with many dimensions, multiple stakeholders, and far-reaching ripple effects. Some are perennial issues, like national security, whereas others may be external shocks—a natural disaster, perhaps, or a pandemic. Regardless of the nature or origin of the challenge, such problems often affect—and require coordinated responses from—multiple parts of government. Leaders must be equipped to anticipate, assess, and react to these complex problems. That was the impetus for the Singapore government's creation of the Centre for Strategic Futures, which "aims to develop insights into future trends and discontinuities, and cultivate capacity and instincts to manage strategic surprises."

In an increasingly complex and interconnected world, governments will struggle to address the challenges of doing more with less if their employees are not armed with the right skills. A commitment to capability building will allow governments to be able to take a more dynamic and adaptable approach to reform.

Closer collaboration with the private and social sectors

Finally, the public sector must adapt to a changing ecosystem in which the biggest challenges cross the boundaries of the public, private, and nonprofit sectors. The need for government to collaborate with the business and nonprofit worlds exists whether government is acting as a consumer of products and services, a provider of public goods, or an economic stakeholder.
Improving government's procurement of products and services
Governments have come under fire for paying too much for products and services. Reducing the cost of government inputs (most of which are sourced from the private sector) is one of the main levers for doing more with less. One way the US government has accelerated the procurement process and lowered procurement costs is through its Challenge.gov platform, which has been used by more than 50 federal agencies to invite companies and citizens to submit responses to "challenges"—in effect, requests for proposals. The top submissions, as judged by the requesting agency, are awarded a cash prize. The $10 million X Prize challenge supported by the Department of Energy yielded over $100 million in private investment. In response to the $50,000 Blue Button challenge, a company in just six weeks installed a function that made personal health records downloadable from a system used by approximately 200,000 doctors. With Challenge.gov, the government gets more people thinking about how to solve tough problems, and it pays only for solutions that work.
Unleashing government's power as a provider of public goods
Governments have for decades provided a set of public goods such as national defense and free-to-air TV. Open data—the release of massive, publicly-held data sets in machine-readable "liquid" form that can readily be used by developers—is arguably a new type of public good, with the potential to spur innovation among companies and other nongovernment entities. Todd Park, the US chief technology officer, has hosted "Datapaloozas"—events at which innovators and entrepreneurs build cost-saving apps using the more than 350 government data sets from 12 US health agencies, available on Data.gov. Similarly, opening up education data sets in several countries has spurred the creation of start-ups that use the data to improve teacher quality, reduce infrastructure costs, optimize school locations, and in general help educators do more with less.
Refining government's role as an economic shaper and integrator
Governments have an opportunity—perhaps even a mandate, in certain troubled sectors—to play the part of a "systems integrator" that takes a high-level view on an issue and figures out how all stakeholders should work together. One area in which government can assume an integrator role is in the education-to-employment (E2E) system: our recent research on E2E has shown that 75 million young people are unemployed globally, yet only 43 percent of employers report that they can find enough qualified entry-level candidates. One integrator model is being tried in Brazil's oil and gas industry. Prominp—a coalition of government agencies, private companies, trade associations, and labor unions—develops a rolling five-year projection of how much manpower is needed in specific geographies and skill areas (for example, shipyard welding or petroleum engineering), then identifies the best training provider to codevelop a curriculum with selected companies to meet those exact needs. By the end of 2012, Prominp had already qualified 90,000 trainees, and its goal is to bridge the projected skill gap of more than 200,000 skilled people by 2014.

The convergence of the public, private, and social sectors means that government leaders will increasingly need to be "tri-sector athletes," adept in operating at the intersections of these sectors. And they will need to embrace new forms of organization and service delivery that are rooted in partnership.

In varying degrees, these four principles are already making a difference in local and national governments worldwide. But government by design isn't easy. It requires political appetite and willingness to reform. It requires the readiness to try things that haven't been tried before, and to quickly jettison ineffective ways of working. But the payoff—effective, affordable government that can better fulfill its multifaceted missions—will be more than worth the effort.

Zambia's Copper Risks

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Copper prices are headed for the longest slump in 20 years, on signs of weakening demand after manufacturing slowed in China and the U.S., the world's top metals consumers. The metal for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange slid as much as 0.3 percent to $7,000 a metric ton, the lowest intraday level since Dec. 4. Prices have lost 4.3 percent in this run of declines. (Source: Businessweek)

Factories in the U.S. expanded in January at the weakest pace in eight months, and a measure of orders declined by the most since December 1980, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed yesterday. In China, a purchasing managers' index fell to a six-month low last month as orders slowed.

Copper in London has slumped 15 percent in the past 12 months, partly as economic growth eased in China. Global supply will exceed demand by 385,000 tons this year, after a 45,000 ton surplus in 2013, and prices will "grind lower". About $2.9 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as China's economy slowed and the Federal Reserve further cut stimulus on Jan. 29.

What does this all mean for Zambia? That depends on how long the slump lasts and where the prices might finally end up. Chile and other produces are pricing much lower copper prices. If they correct it should concern all of us because our economy suffers from lack of diversification and therefore not well positioned to withstand external shocks.

A significant slowdown in copper prices may affect us all in at least six ways. First, lower copper revenues means further depreciation of the Kwacha. Given the political pressure to keep the Kwacha reasonably stronger we are likely to see further erosion of foreign reserves. The Kwacha is currently falling, at the last check it stood at K5.6 per $1. Expect it to go further and the reserves to deplete along the way introducing other risks.

Secondly, further depreciation despite its benefit in improving competitiveness in some sectors carries significant inflationary risks. Zambia is currently experiencing its first trade deficit since 2009. It is very vulnerable to exchange rate movements as consumption of foreign goods increasingly continue to take a larger share of food basket. This will mean more costs to individuals on the poverty line.

Thirdly, at the firm level, the short term impact of weaker Kwacha is higher cost of imports for production! The elasticity of imports becomes crucial here, but needless to say, oil is a critical input for mining production costs, and a weak exchange rate, means higher domestic production costs for other sectors not least general transportation. This effector means the cost of doing business will rise.

Fourthly, higher government costs. A weaker Kwacha means GRZ debt repayments become dearer. And of course if it comes with further credit downgrades going forward the cost of repayments may be even higher. In general the cost of doing government business will become more expensive. Consider that GRZ funds it's embassies in foreign currencies and then there's all the many foreign travels, and other costs.

Fifthly, lower government revenues. The reduction in copper revenues will mean lower than forecast mining taxation revenues. This is a problem in terms of fiscal policy because it yet again means government will continue borrowing more abroad and at home than suggested. That again may point further to credit down grade from credit agencies as the deficit worsens. We already knew that Zambia's fiscal deficit is likely to get worse before it gets better. This may amplify that! And of course private sector credit may also further be crowded out from higher domestic borrowing, increasing private sector interest rates.

Finally, unemployment pressures may increase. The reduction in copper prices are unlikely to lead to immediate job losses, but it will put further pressure on some mining houses facing high energy and wage costs (e.g KCM). It is also possible that it will make new investments in less likely until prices re-adjust to a much higher medium to long term equilibrium. It largely depends on how severe the slump becomes.

These impacts are not set in stone. These are just potential risks and much depend on how worse the slump becomes and how those in government respond. The challenge for Zambia of course is that  the economic folly of increasing wages and misguided foreign borrowing spree has already robbed us of much needed fiscal space to respond to any external shocks.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist | Writer
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

In Cryptography We Trust : A Short Guide to Bitcoin

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Editor’s note: This is a guest post by Michael Chishala, a Zambian writer and regular contributor to the discussions on the ZE Facebook page. Follow him on Facebook.
What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is a form of decentralized currency system similar to Dollars or Pounds, except that it is completely digital (based on computer hardware and software). These "digital coins" can be used like traditional money for transactions between two parties. They are "mined" (like gold or silver) from a special "peer-to-peer" computer program that sits on a distributed worldwide network of computers. The mining process involves using computers to solve complex mathematical problems and getting rewarded with the bitcoins which the "miners" can then trade for other things just like silver can be exchanged for Dollars or used to pay people's wages. Bitcoins can be traded on an exchange just like Gold can be traded on the London Metal Exchange. The Bitcoin system makes extensive use of encryption technology (hence sometimes called a "crypto-currency") and because it is a peer-to-peer network, there are millions of copies of the records of how many bitcoins there are and all the transactions between different parties using Bitcoin.

This makes it virtually impossible to counterfeit a bitcoin or spend the same bitcoin twice because it is extremely unlikely that any person or organization can take control of sufficient copies of the "Bitcoin Ledger" (called the "Blockchain") on the computers in the world and alter the records to their advantage. Once a false transaction is picked up by the system, it is automatically blocked from all the copies of the public Bitcoin ledger (transactions are validated by between six and eight trusted computers on the network). However, it is possible to steal or lose bitcoins if there is poor security. For example, you can lose your bitcoins if a Bitcoin Exchange is hacked into. You can also lose the digital "wallet" that you keep Bitcoins in (it is a file on your computer which can be lost if the computer is hacked into or crashes and you did not back up the wallet).

Who created it?

We don't know. It was anonymously released to the public in 2009 as a downloadable software platform by a person (or persons) going under the name "Satoshi Nakamoto". Nakamoto's identity has never been discovered, despite many gallant attempts.

Why is Bitcoin necessary?

Short answer: Inflation and government meddling.

Long answer: All the major currencies in the world today are no longer backed by a commodity such as gold or silver, they way it was about a hundred years ago when there was a "Gold Standard" and a "Silver Standard". Back then, currencies were essentially paper certificates that proved that you had deposited gold, silver or any other acceptable commodity in the bank (a little similar to title deeds). In America in the 19th century, you could deposit tobacco in a warehouse and get certificates that could be used for payments. A single certificate saying you had a hundred ounces of gold could be divided into many smaller certificates (denominations) and could then be exchanged freely between people or even deposited directly into a bank account. They were the forerunner of today's banknotes. They could be taken to any bank anywhere and exchanged for the actual gold, silver or tobacco. This is why originally on every banknote it was written, "I promise to pay the bearer on demand". The bank or merchant promises to pay you the equivalent amount in gold, silver or copper that is written on the banknote.

In the olden days, a bank could only print banknotes according to how much gold or silver it held in its vaults. This also applied to Central banks. However, after the Gold Standard was progressively abandoned, partially during the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, central banks began printing money not connected to physical commodities like gold or silver. This is called "Fiat Money". In collusion with governments, central banks began to create much more money than the productivity of economies. Over time, this began to create inflation and since all the major currencies of the world are doing the same, many people began to yearn for another medium of exchange that was free from inflation and government manipulation the way the US Dollar or Pound is. This is what set the stage for the birth of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. The worldwide global financial crisis of 2007-2008, partly blamed on the US government's creation of money out of thin air (so-called "Quantitative Easing") was perhaps the straw that broke the camel's back.

In 2010, Wikileaks released a lot of damaging information to the US government and many people began donating money to keep it alive after governments tried to have it shut down. VISA, Mastercard and Paypal blocked payments to Wikileaks and its Paypal account was frozen. This incident partially fueled the rise of Bitcoin as the solution to such government meddling. The lack of government control over Bitcoin has made it very attractive to many people.

How is it any different from the money in my bank account? I transfer money electronically anway!

Bitcoin is not managed by any central authority the way Central Banks manage currencies. The US Federal Reserve can control the value of Dollars by producing more or removing some from circulation. This cannot be done with bitcoins.

What are its advantages over traditional paper currencies?

Aside from being "inflation proof", bitcoins do not need a trusted third party when you need to transfer them to someone else. If you want to move money to another geographical location without having to send physical cash, you need a bank or other third party like VISA, Western Union, the Post Office or even a mobile payment vendor. You incur fees for this service. Bitcoin allows you to send money directly to another person without involving any third party. The transaction costs imposed by the system (normally less that one US cent) are very tiny compared to traditional systems and the time to complete the transfer is just minutes. You can give money to someone standing next to you in this way via your mobile phone.

Bitcoins are anonymous (your identity does not exist anywhere in the system, only your Bitcoin “address”). This has made them popular for purchasing illegal goods and services on the Internet such as gambling and drugs. Others use them to circumvent government controls over movement of money. They can even be used to evade taxes. However, it is still possible to trace the owner of bitcoins if they do not cover their tracks properly.

For example, if you order something that gets delivered to your house, it becomes easier to connect your bitcoin wallet expenditure to you. An investigator can study your patterns of expenditure from the public Blockchain and compare them with other information about you. Some software developers have already come up with solutions to obfuscate the transactions from your Bitcoin wallet.

What are Bitcoin's disavantages?

It is not yet in widespread use. It is not yet very user friendly to use. Governments and Banks have not yet adopted it along with all other paper currencies. Governments are suspicious about Bitcoin as it undermines their ability to create money out of thin air and cause inflation. By its nature, it is a "deflationary currency" (its value increases over time). This is because the total number of bitcoins that can be mined is fixed at 21 million and the number that can be mined per year keeps dropping over time until the year 2140 when the last bitcoins will be mined. As demand for Bitcoin as a medium of exchange increases, the value of one unit increases in purchasing power. However, the emergence of competing digital currencies like Litecoin may dampen the deflationary pressures.

There are many currency speculators who are hoarding it. It is currently very volatile due to speculators looking to cash in. It is therefore unsuitable for everyday transactions for the moment. However, the problems around adoption are likely to be solved soon once new advances in technology come online this year, making Bitcoin more accessible. Companies like Google are already working to embed Bitcoin into the Chrome web browser. Bitcoin will soon be integrated into operating systems on cellphones and Tablets and this will significantly accelerate uptake.

Can I use Bitcoin to buy things? What about getting my salary in Bitcoins?

There are many hundreds of organizations across the world accepting bitcoins as payment. Many employers in Europe are already paying salaries in bitcoins. The number is growing but Bitcoin use is still very tiny and less than half is used for traditional payments. However, its use is growing rapidly.

What other potential uses does Bitcoin have? 

It can be used as some form of "anonymous identity" (without names) that can be used to login to websites and other online services. For example, a "members only" website can only admit people that have maintained a certain minimum Bitcoin balance over six months. Since the Bitcoin blockchain is public, this information is available to software programs without requiring express authorization.

People can place bets on horses or political outcomes using Bitcoin such that funds are moved automatically and irreversibly by the system after the result is known. Escrow services are another use whereby payments for goods and services are locked by the system until the buyer confirms receipt. You do not need to hire a bank or other financial institution for this and the costs of the service will be minuscule.

Another interesting idea being developed is crowdsourcing or crowdfunding whereby a person looking for venture capital can pitch their idea to the public and lots of people donate small amounts which then add up to what they need and they only get the money once they hit their target. Websites like kickstarter.com already do this but they charge a 5% commission. Bitcoin removes the middle man as money is automatically moved from Bitcoin wallets only when the total pledges reach the intended target.

What is the future of Bitcoin?

It has the potential to be highly disruptive of the entire financial sector. It can potentially supplant systems like Telegraphic Transfers, Mobile payment solutions, Western Union / Moneygram transfers, VISA / MasterCard and even Paypal. It could even conceivably destroy banking as we know it because it will render a bank account obsolete once employers can pay you directly or you can receive business payments and other money in bitcoins. The role of Banks to keep your money safe from theft will become irrelevant and they will have to transform into lending houses largely.

If widely adopted, there are many potential economic and social side effects. Computing technology has already benefitted with better chips called “ASIC” (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). The unbanked population (60% by some measures) could more easily transact over long distances without need for cash or bank branches. Costs associated with managing physical cash would be reduced over time. Bitcoin funds could be pulled together from many people into Mutual Funds and provide more capital for entrepreneurs.
Bitoin is even safer than banks because in the Bitcoin system, it is impossible to have a "run on the bank". It may affect tax collections as people begin trading services and goods outside the established banking system. 

This may not necessarily be a big problem because all businesses have to be registered and report their income and expenditure. Tax evasion is more likely to occur among individuals and very small businesses that are already evading taxes even under the current system. Better software systems can deal with this in future.
There are many governments that will doubtless attempt to fight Bitcoin with all sorts of legislation. This may affect its uptake speed. However, regardless of what anyone tries to do or how events play out in the end, the cat is now out of the bag. Bitcoin, in whatever form it shall end up, is clearly the future of money and voluntary exchanges. It will also very likely end up being used in ways we cannot yet imagine, as happened to personal computers and the Internet.

Further Reading

Wrong Priorities

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I spent much of last year bemoaning the poor policy decision to award large public sector pay rise. These graphs below illustrates the scale of that mind boggling wage rise:.

Photo: It is economic folly to spend 11% of your GDP on public sector wages. It is a complete misallocation of resources. Especially when that is being funded by removal of subsidies on fuel, maize and foreign debt. What is wrong with us as a people?
Photo: More economic folly. We are trying to top the wrong tables. In this graphic we are spending more on wages as a proportion of revenues than our peer countries. Where are we going as a people?

It is economic folly to spend 11% of your GDP on public sector wages. It is a complete misallocation of resources. Especially when that is being funded by removal of subsidies on fuel, maize and foreign debt.  We are trying to top the wrong tables. In this graphic we are spending more on wages as a proportion of revenues than our peer countries. 

The situation of course is likely to get worse before it gets bigger because the overall size of the public sector is getting larger as we add more districts, more schools and more hospitals. The problem is that revenues are not increasing because we get inadequate revenues from mining companies and of course the tax base is not broad enough. In short we shall see more borrowing continuing mainly because of poor decisions around recurrent expenditures. 

Technical Compendium of Agriculture Statistics

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This helpful technical compendium from IAPRI is intended to serve as a reference document for  researchers and government officials. It uses nationally representative survey data to provide descriptive trends and analysis relevant to the agricultural sector. 



AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Lesson Learnt

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Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda recently announced that no money has been saved from the removal of fuel and maize subsidies. There has been calls on government to explain how much it has saved from the removal of subsidies and where that money is being spent.

Chikwanda says what GRZ has done is merely prevent expenditure on further subsidies. And by doing so it has increased expenditure "on other developmental projects which could have suffered if such funds were still being allocated to subsidies...". He did not say what amount and where the money has gone precisely.

The money on subsidies could only have been "saved" in a real sense if it resulted in a reduced budget deficit and government debt. But both of these things have ballooned. The money "saved" from fuel and maize subsidies went on funding the large unprecedented increase in public sector wage bill.

In short, money intended for the poor went on larger salaries for the employed. The idea of removing subsidies in hindsight turns out to be the most retrogressive policy undertaken in recent times. Why? Because it took money from the poorest people and gave it to workers with jobs already. As my wife likes to ask when she sees something bizarre, "who does that?"

The idea of removing subsidies is sound in principle provided money is given back to the poor in form of income transfers or even invested in alternative energy like biofuels. Instead what happened was the large wage increases. The government did something very immoral.

One of my regrets is that those of us who were strong supporters of the removal of subsidies failed to live up to our responsibilities to first defend and protect the poor with tangible calls for policies before supporting the proposal. We were too simple in our analysis. Too theoretical! Too trusting of those in charge of policy! I certainly was!

Yes, the economic theory made sense. The policy was correct, all things being equal. But all things were not equal! We supported a policy which had no public support and had not been publicly consulted on. We supported a policy without sufficient attention to the people and institutions executing it. We too readily decoupled policy from its environment. That is not only bad morally it is also not sound economics in the end. It is the same mistake foreign donors repeatedly make.

Our support was based on blind trust that no one would be foolish enough to take money from the poor and spend it on wages and by-elections. Now looking back and seeing how many mistakes are being made in the policy terrain, one can only ask, how did we not see that the money would be wasted?

As a young economist starting over 12 years ago, I had a plaque on my desk with a quote from Alfred Marshall :"If the economist reasons rapidly and with a light heart, he is apt to make bad mistakes at every turn of his work". It is a lesson easily forgotten! Economics that add values starts with correct judgements about the limits of prevailing economic theory and pays attention to the depravity of the human heart, especially of politicians.

We cannot afford to merely "assume" that our leaders have our best interests at heart. We cannot sacrifice process for assumed outcomes. Most importantly it is vital to learn to reason slowly before jumping to support any policy! Every policy must ask - will this make the poor better or worse off? It is a lesson I need to keep re-learning. It is also a lesson I commend to every young economist.

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Governing by decrees

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The Zambia Episcopal Conference recently held a press conference at which they made wide ranging observations on where they think the PF administration is failing. The key paragraph that jumped out for me is this one :
In our past statements in 2013, we consistently appealed to government to promote a culture of consultation as a basis of policy and decision making. Ruling by decrees is not only undemocratic but also denies our country the benefit of bright ideas that could be offered by many citizens not in positions of decision making. Some decrees have led to policies that raise great challenges to implement. In the past we have talked about decrees on creation of a multitude of districts; today it is the issue of using local languages as a mode of instruction at lower primary in our schools and then the issue of SI No. 103
This is an important statement. As I have previously noted, effective policy making is not just about having right policies (if such exists), but also the right processes of reaching policy decisions. Transparency and national consensus are key ingredients for sustainable and effective long term policies. Not "governing by decrees" or as the "know it all".

More importantly, if the government is genuinely confident about the decisions its making, there is no reason why it should not subject them to significant public scrutiny by way of consultation. Without transparency we shall keep inventing and re-inventing. The party in government must stop behaving like it will always hold the reins of power, and begin to accept that transition is part of the democratic process and as such it must govern not just for today but for tomorrow.

Some foolish paid people are doing the rounds on Facebook pages crying for anyone who challenges GRZ to offer "solutions". But where should the solutions be given when there's no public consultation over major policies? Even when policies are opposed by the public some corrupt ministers circumvent the will of the people. This is what we are seeing currently with the decision to allow Zambezi Resources Limited to establish and open cast mine in the Lower Zambezi National Park.

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013

Banks and Credit Growth

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The chart below is good news because we are witnessing increased delivery of financial services in rural areas through rapid expansion of bank branches. Current GRZ plans to improve titling of customary land will also hopefully translate into improved credit access for many rural dwellers. No point of having access to banking services if you are still struggling to borrow.


However, even with the growth in bank branches the borrowing rates are still beyond the reach of ordinary Zambians. More must be done than merely increase of land titling. We have previously noted the large risk premium (lending rates minus savings rate) currently standing at 12.8% gap. Clearly the reason for high lending rates is partly due to lack of collateral and credit history.

But it also has to do with alleged collusion among banks that Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda has previously mentioned. Rapid expansion in banking services will only come with lower rates if there is increased competition among Banks. The banking system is highly concentrated, with the top four banks’ assets amounting to about 60 percent of total banking sector assets. That is hardly a platform for competition especially when there is no strong competition regulator.

To make matters worse the GRZ decision to increase minimum capital requirement for foreign and domestic banks which is now in force will only lead to even to more consolidation! The capital requirements were increased in 2012 from $2.4 million to $20 million for locally owned banks and to $100 million for foreign-owned banks. These are now in force.

The decision has led some foreign banks merging with Zambian banks. This good news from the "Zambianisation" perspective, for those who believe prosperity requires Zambian ownership. It is certainly good economically in so far as the new capital requirements should make the banking system more resilient financial shocks which should help prevent collapse of local banks in particular, lessening the need for GRZ rescue in the future.

Unfortunately this may come at cost to competition and credit access. Higher requirement may reduce banking competition (particularly fom domestic banks) leading to lower credit creation! The result may be ever higher cost of borrowing, precisely the opposite of what GRZ is aiming to achieve. One can only pray that there is some logical and beneficial pattern of some sort in the ever increasing contradictory chaos that characterises GRZ policymaking!

And of course it obvious that one of key reasons why the risk premium is likely to remain high is due to the cocktail of factors afflicting our financial system. It remains my view that in Zambia inflation expectations have not been sufficiently tamed by BoZ. Even though the policy rate is helping with signalling. it remains the case that lending rate are sensitive to variability of inflation and not just the level. Its a fact that inflation in Zambia has not yet been stabilised sufficiently.

And on top of all this Chikwanda's poor handling of the economy is not helping by failing to consolidate the hold on the external value of the Kwacha (exchange rate ) which introduces more risks in the system. Our friend has not realised that there's a direct relationship between macroeconomic management and the risk premium. That ignorance means sadly all the benefits of the current rapid expansion of banking services may not be fully realised.

AUTHOR
Chola Mukanga | Economist
Copyright © Zambian Economist 2013
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