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Zambia Budget 2013

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Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda delivered the Budget Statement 2013 today. Those interested in taxation only should see the ZRA Budget Highlights. Further analysis to follow, but the mining tax changes appear to have continued the tightening a few areas e.g. capital allowance reduced from 100% to 25%. Also the new tax on transfer of mining rights will help with the perverse situation in the gemstones industry. But closer study of the Budget is needed!
Zambia Budget 2013 - Budget Address

Zambia Budget 2013 - Tax Highlights

Looking Beyond China

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By Jessica Achberger

When it comes to relations between African nations and Asian nations, the focus is undoubtedly on China. We have had numerous posts and papers on Zambia's relations with China, in a variety of capacities and with a range of viewpoints. While the relationship between Zambia and China is no doubt of critical importance to understand, recent visits to Japan and South Korea by President Sata turn the spotlight in a different direction.

President Sata has just ended a five day working visit to Japan, with much of the newspaper publicity on his side-trip to take mass in a Catholic Church in Hokkaido. But what did he actually accomplish?

The biggest accomplishment of the trip was the signing of the Kazungula Bridge Deal between Zambia, Botswana, and Japan. The project will be financed jointly through the African Development Bank and the Japan International Development Cooperation, commonly referred to as "JICA." The total cost for the project is US$142.22 million and is intended to replace the pontoon on the Zambezi River at the border crossing between Zambia and Botswana.

In addition to signing the Kazungula Bridge agreement, President Sata is reported by the Times of Zambia to have "met several business people and representatives of various organisations." He also visited Hokkaido University, where there are seven Zambian students studying, with hopes to grow the cooperation with the University of Zambia further in the future.

Next up on President Sata's Asia tour is South Korea for the third Korea-African Economic Cooperation (KOAFEC) Forum, originally launched in 2006. The three-day forum, co-hosted by the African Union and South Korea, will discuss development, trade, investment, and security issues. Including Zambia, seventeen African nations are attending the event.

In addition to attending the Forum, President Sata has scheduled meetings with the Prime Minister of South Korea and several Korean businesses, including Samsung and IS Dongseo.

Growth Prospects

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A useful summary from Standard Chartered on the current growth prospects for Zambia. The general message is that though Zambia remains vulnerable to the current vulnerability in copper prices (China has been slowing down), it rightly concludes that the fiscal risk is not extreme. 
Zambia – Exploring copper price vulnerability; Razia Khan; Standard Charted Focus; Commentary:

The resounding success of Zambia’s maiden Eurobond issuance has focused attention on economic prospects in the copper-rich country. The order book for the 10Y USD 750mn Eurobond totalled USD 11.9bn, far exceeding expectations. With a coupon of only 5.37%, the lowest yet achieved by a frontier African sovereign, financing costs on Zambia’s Eurobond (the current yield is 5.26%, down from 5.625% on its debut) compare favourably with the cost of domestic financing (current yields on infrequently traded 10Y ZMK debt are c.14.75%). The success of Zambia’s Eurobond reflected in part a resurgence of risk appetite following the announcement of new easing measures in mature economies. However, it is mostly believed to reflect strong appetite for relatively limited external issuance by African sovereigns. Despite the subdued global outlook, Zambian prospects are still regarded favourably. The IMF expects 7.7% growth this year, following last year’s negative copper-sector growth, reflecting production declines (overall GDP still rose 6.6% in 2011). August CPI rose to 6.4% y/y on higher food inflation but remains in mid-single digits and still represents the best inflation outcome achieved in Zambia in decades. While the kwacha (ZMK) has weakened since the authorities released a new directive banning the use of FX for domestic transactions, it remains relatively stable.

Fears over the economy’s copper dependence persist. Zambia’s economic record has been favourable, with a doubling of copper output prior to the crisis, and robust medium-term projections; however, its narrow export base remains a key rating negative. Data for 2011 suggests that copper accounted for 77% of export receipts, leaving Zambia vulnerable if copper prices should decline. We are mildly bullish on copper, anticipating a recovery in 3M LME prices to USD 8,500/t by end-Q4-2012, and an average price of USD 8,875/t for 2013; nonetheless, as noted below, key metrics might be affected by a sustained downturn in copper.

Despite a doubling in the rate of copper-related royalties to 6% in the 2012 budget, copper’s contribution to the overall tax-take is minimal. Generous development agreements secured by many mine operators when they first invested in Zambia, and the ability to carry losses forward, have meant that to date, only one mining group operating in Zambia pays a significant amount of corporate income tax. According to the 2012 budget, mining taxes (royalties and tax arrears combined) accounted for 11.8% of total domestic revenue, and only 9% of the total available resource envelope. Although any sustained slump in copper prices would affect activity more broadly, with implications for revenue collection elsewhere in the economy, the direct contribution of mining to the fiscus remains small, and much below the sector’s weight in GDP (c.30%). Contingent liabilities of the public sector, identified as a key fiscal risk, and potential spending overruns in the event of the authorities having to put into place greater social safety nets, would have to be watched. Nonetheless, immediate fiscal risks, even in the event of a 20% decline in copper prices, would likely not be extreme.

The impact on Zambia’s balance of payments is likely to be more severe. Projected trade data for 2012 from the latest IMF Article IV report, which uses a copper price assumption of USD 7767/t (compared with a year-to-date average price of USD 7970/t), suggests that despite a small current account surplus, Zambia’s total exports are sufficient to cover imports only 1.3 times. Although some of Zambia’s import bill is likely to be impacted by mining activity (which might slow in the event of weaker copper prices), IMF data indicates that oil makes up only 8% of Zambia’s goods imports (little further breakdown as to what constitutes imports is available from official sources). In the event of a downside global shock that weakened copper prices, Zambia’s exports would be vulnerable, but it is conceivable that its import bill might not weaken that much, leaving the country’s external balances weaker. With Zambia’s import cover estimated by the IMF to be only 3.3 months (our own projections suggest four months), the ZMK would be vulnerable to any correction in copper prices. For Eurobond investors, however, near-term cyclicality in copper and local currency volatility are unlikely to be immediate concerns.

The Landlocked Challenge

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Paul Collier's Bottom Billion helped popularise the idea that countries like Zambia are trapped in poverty and failing to reap the benefits of globalisation because of our "landlockedness". Empirical evidence certainly does appear to support the notion that there's some sort of "curse" associated with being landlocked. To overcome the curse of course we need to know why "landlockedness" presents a development challenge - or the channels through which it "locks in" countries. The standard answer is largely based on evidence from "gravity models", which point to the negative impact of landlockedness on bilateral trade flows. The idea being that being landlocked reduces "trade openness". A recent paper explores this issue and tests for other factors, especially institutional quality. It finds a rather different conclusion :
The paper revisits and extends the evidence on the relationship between development and landlocked status. Development is here measured by the level of per-capita GDP. The landlocked status is allowed to affect per-capita income not just through trade, but also through its effect on institutional quality. A residual effect is also accounted for, which might pick the impact of landlockedness on proximate determinants of income (like human and physical capital or technology) and/or on cultural values. Estimates of a structural model of three equations indicate that: (i) institutional quality rather than trade openness seems to be the main channel of transmission of the effect of landlockedness and (ii) there is a negative residual effect of landlockedness on income after controlling for the transmission through institutional quality (and trade). These findings are generally robust to the use of different estimators and to the exclusion of the most advanced economies from the sample.
Simply stated the evidence points to the fact that being landlocked negatively affects the quality of institutions (governance), which is in turn affects our prosperity. The trade channel is surprisingly mild. Now the econometrics may be questioned, particularly the institutional variable seems suspect. But if the work is to be believed, and the best way to do that is to keep an eye for new research in this area, it does seem to offer hope. If the main channel through which landlockedness affects us is actually something we can control through internal policies then we should be working to overcome that. Let us work to sort out our institutions! On the flip side  it is clearly easier to implement trade openness than get people to appreciate the value of good institutions because it is not in the interest of the ruling class. So therein lies the mountain and the valley! Over to you!

Policy Bloopers (Various)

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Interesting misguided policies that may have escaped your attention in recent weeks. We will try and do this more often, which in effect will try and pick on some of the main policy bloopers flagged up via our Facebook Page (do please "like the Page" to keep up with exciting debates there) :

Agriculture Minister Emmanuel Chenda announced earlier this month that GRZ has exhausted the K300 billion budgetary allocation for the crop marketing exercise. FRA has been authorized to BORROW money for buying maize from farmers. This happens all the time. We are borrowing to subsidise farmers and later export the maize at a loss. It's not good enough. The policy madness has to stop surely. It's totally unsustainable  How long are we going to continue?

Government is planning to establish a Civil Service Bank to enable civil servants access low interest loans, according to Education Minister John Phiri. The rationale seems very poor. There are many ways of getting loans to civil servants without creating a bank! It is also wrong priorities. Why only civil servants? Surely we should be trying to widen credit access to the 70% living on less than $2 a day?

Chief Registra Clement Andeleki says that Government will soon take forward new legislation that will ensure de-registration of political parties that "fail to gain political ground within two years". He thinks this can be done by an amendment of the Societies Act chapter 119 of the Laws of Zambia. He says that most political parties in Zambia are just there to endorse other parties during election time and also gain donor funds. Out of 47 political parties in Zambia he says only about six participated in elections. Andeleki's figures are actually  misguided. More importantly, though the idea of sorting out ghost parties is good in principle it is dangerous to make such an amendment through Societies Act and give a political appointee like Clement Andeleki such powers. It amounts to regulation of political parties - surely such principles ought to be laid out in the Constitution to start with? This issue requires significant public debate. What's the rush? People should reject any political regulation by the back door - even when it comes dressed as an angel of light!

A Labour Agenda

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The latest ITUC Frontlines Report 2012 on what needs to be done to create employment in Zambia and deliver a fair wage to workers. It has the usual things one expects from a trade union federation - some very good e.g. call for greater revenues from mining and a more clear industrial strategy. Other things are less clear e.g. the call for reduction in informality but at the same time advocating minimum wages and more comprehensive pensions coverage. In general, its thought provoking - here are the main recommendations : 
Given the widespread poverty and extreme high informality of employment with its consequent low wages, poor working conditions and lack of protection of rights, a strategy to formalise the informal economy should be among the main priorities in Zambia. Organising strategies, incentives for formalisation and social protection coverage are some of the steps to be taken to help this transformation.

The large size of the agriculture sector of which a substantive part is subsistence farming also accounts for high levels of poverty, informality, low or unpaid jobs and low productivity. A dual strategy to increase on the one hand productivity levels in agriculture and on the other the development of an industrial policy to stimulate manufacturing and higher value-added production is crucial for Zambia to get out of the dependence on agriculture and mining and to increase formal economy employment. Such an industrial policy should go beyond the current plans to promote low value added manufacturing linked to agriculture and mining, and should be far more ambitious with targeted investments in higher value added segments and creation of production, learning and research and development clusters.

To restrict the focus uniquely to increasing productivity in agriculture would be too narrow and only have limited positive effects in terms of formal employment, wages and poverty.

The minimum wage, although it has been adjusted recently, which is a very welcome development, remains far below a living wage and will also continue to put downward pressure on wages in the formal economy. More efforts should be made to reinstate the extension of collective bargaining coverage to give a new boost to collective bargaining in Zambia and to ensure higher sectoral wage levels.

Investments in infrastructure and the building of a social protection floor are two important agenda items for the Zambian government that would reduce poverty and inequality while at the same time boosting the economy and employment. A first step is to be made with an extension of old age pension to cover the entire population over 65, followed by child benefits, healthcare coverage and unemployment benefits. The government should further use the planned investments in infrastructure to promote employment intensive investment. Employment guarantee schemes are another area that should be considered.

Concerning FDI and investment policy there is a need for a different approach in Zambia. Boosting domestic investment and targeting specific foreign investment that complements the industrial development strategy is one part of the new approach that has to be taken. At the same time abuses by foreign investors need to be addressed more strongly, and royalties from the mining sector could be increased to finance infrastructure, social protection and industrial development.

Finally, social dialogue is critical in building a more equitable and sustainable economy. This requires respect for trade union rights, setting up the right mechanisms for dialogue across social and eco¬nomic policy areas, and building the capacity of constituents to participate in such dialogue.

Mining Watch (Various)

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Brazil’s mining giant Vale has begun producing copper concentrate at its Lubambe mine in Zambia. Production at the mine, which began on Oct. 4, is expected to lead to an annual output of 45,000 tonnes of concentrate, the company said on Thursday. The Lubambe mine is a joint venture with African Rainbow Minerals Ltd. and ZCCM-IH.

Human Rights Watch say work conditions at Zambia's Chinese-owned copper mines have improved, but the labour record is still clouding China's sizeable investments into the country.

Konkola Copper Mines is unsurprisingly not happy with recent reduction of capital allowance to 25% from 100% in the 2013 Budget suggerst the move will have an impact on the mines’ future projects. KCM says, The tax came as a surprise to us and it’s a matter of concern for the mining industry. The mine will engage Government on the matter through the Chamber of Mines of Zambia..."

The  Chamber of Mines of Zambia has been talking up Zambia's mining potential. It is "projected" Zambia will indeed hit 1.5 million metric tonnes of copper production in the next five years following new mining projects embarked on by mining firms. It is quick to note that mining firms have invested US$6 billion to date since privatisation in rehabilitation, expansion of new processing plants and housing projects.

Mines Deputy Minister Richard Musukwa says it is shameful that people living in mining areas were not feeling the benefit of the mineral revenue that companies operating in their localities pay to government. But the Minister does not go on to offer a solution to this predicament. 

New prison capacity

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The New Mwembeshi Maximum Security Prison in Mumbwa is set to open next month. According Percy Chato (Commissioner of Prisons) around 90% of the construction works have been completed. The facility is being constructed at the cost of K65 billion and will have to accommodate six hundred inmates. The idea is that the New Mwembeshi will help decongest the appalling Mukobeko maximum prison in Kabwe which has overcrowding way beyond 100%.

The few prison places this will deliver of course wont do much to deal with appalling prison overcrowding in the country - currently estimated at 209%. Very little prison capacity has been delivered since the colonial era.  But even without additional capacity we are not doing well. We need to get  remand down! 1 in 3 prisoners are presumed innocent and being held on remand. If we can reduce on that through more efficient court processes we can reduce on remand. The recent ramp up in court capacity should be put to effective use. 

Also we need to row back on custodial sentences. There many custodial sentences which are churned out for minor offences like stealing a cob of maize, petty thieving, bouncing cheques has not helped. Its clearly much more effective to impose monetary fines and where they cannot pay, community based sentences should be explored. These ideas of course have "retributive justice" problems. The punishment clearly has to fit the crime and therefore government needs a better criteria for how certain offences are define as crimes in the first place rather than civil offences.

The Human Rights Commission has also helpfully noted the need for a serious look at the "rehabilitation agenda". In their words, "The Commission is greatly concerned that today, Zambian prisons still echo the times when such facilities were viewed as places of punishment instead of being centres for rehabilitation of offenders who would later be integrated back into society after serving their respective sentences". What they have in mind are initiatives like this donor funded project which is designed to help get prisoners back to school.



Constituency Development Funds, 3rd Edition

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Charles Kakoma MP (Zambezi West, UPND) recently said the Government must increase the Constituency Development Fund to K5 billion, or the opposition will not support the 2013 budget. In his words :
"This is a 'don't kubeba budget' because they are not telling the Zambian people the truth about what they are going to do in this country. It is meant to be a campaign budget to cool down the youths who have no jobs. The CDF must be increased to K5 billion; without that we are not going to support this budget"
This is poor thinking. Mr Kakoma should know that not too long ago it was revealed that the Government by its own admission has not measured the impact of the CDF on the socio-economic development of constituencies from inception to date. Two major studies which were conducted by Caritas Zambia and the Economic Association of Zambia (EAZ) on the impact of the CDF which are in public domain have shown rampart corruption and misallocation of funds. So how can Mr Kakoma ask for such a fund to be increased five-fold? So that MPs can eat more?

The CDF should be abolished and in its place a better fiscal framework should be put in place. Let councils have proper fiscal decentralisation. Let them spend the money they raise through local taxes. And please, let us ensure MPs stay out of money issues. It corrupts their proper functions : which is creating laws; representation; and, advocacy. Only in Zambia do Members of Parliament worry about local budgets! Such should be the job of a properly functioning council! Not MPs!

Are the prison amnesties misguided?

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President Sata recently gave another prisoner amnesty to 260 people as part of this year's independence celebrations. This is according to an Order of Release signed by the Head of State dated October 26, 2012. Apparently the move is "meant to decongest prison facilities in the country".This is the third act of prisoner amenesty under Mr Sata.

On independence day in 2011, President Sata freed people who he believed were imprisoned over "over minor wildlife-related offences". In his words, "as we celebrate 47 years of our independence, I have extended a gesture of goodwill to these people by pardoning a total of 673 prisoners, majority of whom were jailed over these minor wildlife-related cases".

In June 2012, we had another amnesty 2,318 prisoners were released under the Presidential Prerogative of Mercy as part of the Africa Freedom Day commemoration. According to  Home Affairs Ministry, the gesture was a response to appalling conditions in prisons and is in line with the PF's manifesto of turning the prisons into correctional service facilities. It was also part of Government's commitment to "finding lasting solutions to the persistent problems of congestion in our prisons. We need to have conditions that foster humane treatment in tandem with international standards”.

Now in October 2012 we have another release. The total releases now under President Sata is near 3,300. The main reason appears to be appalling prison conditions. No one can certainly argue with that. Prison overcrowding in the country  is appalling - currently estimated at 209%. Very little prison capacity has been delivered since the colonial era. But whatever one thinks of the prison conditions, amnesties not a lasting solution to that problem.

For one amnesties in other countries have not sustainably reduced prison populations. Indeed in most cases it has led to increases in crime. At the time when the country has less than 3,000 police officers release people onto our streets who have not been adequately punished is not the solution to improving law and order. There's of course also the important question of justice. What is our conception of justice as a people.? Some may rightly ask - if commits acts of violence against someone and is sentenced for 10 years...and then the victim hears the man only served 4 years because of the presidential amnesty- would the victim be happy? Absolutely no! The point is that the presidential pardon though legal has huge ramifications and these need further debate.

Amnesties will not solve our prison problem which are largely due to an imbalance between supply of prison infrastructure and demand of it.  The demand is not only due to crime levels, but also because we produce many laws that we don't need; have fewer court and judicial capacity which has led to high remand levels which currently stand at 35%. We need to get  remand down! 1 in 3 prisoners are presumed innocent and being held on remand. If we can reduce on that through more efficient court processes we can reduce on remand.  There are people on remand who should not be incarcerated and with proper policies ought not to be on remand if the system can be made more efficient. The priority therefore should not be on amnesties but on bringing remand down.

Also we need to row back on custodial sentences. There many custodial sentences which are churned out for minor offences like stealing a cob of maize, petty thieving and bouncing cheques has not helped. Its clearly much more effective to impose monetary fines and where they cannot pay, community based sentences should be explored. These ideas of course have "retributive justice" problems. The punishment clearly has to fit the crime and therefore government needs a better criteria for how certain offences are defined as crimes against the state, and also as custodial rather than monetary penalties or  civil offences.

The Human Rights Commission has also helpfully noted the need for a serious look at the "rehabilitation agenda". In their words, "The Commission is greatly concerned that today, Zambian prisons still echo the times when such facilities were viewed as places of punishment instead of being centres for rehabilitation of offenders who would later be integrated back into society after serving their respective sentences". What they have in mind are initiatives like recent donor funded projects which are helping get prisoners back to school.

But amnesties as currently practised by this administration have other problems. The criteria is not clear! One day it is wildlife offences. Next it is corruption offences (as was the case in June 2012).  We surely need more lasting solutions to the prison population than random amnesties whose criteria is unknown! How do we know those released are not PF supporters imprisoned by under the old regime? Also rather than blanket pardons - have alternatives been explored? Why can't those released for example work on community sentences to repair our much needed infrastructure?  There are many alternatives that ensure that justice is seen to be done - though it is ironic that where justice is needed, for remandees, very little is being done to bring it down. We are letting criminals go scot free and keeping innocents in jail. No one want amnesties for remandees, what is needed is to make the system for remandees more deficient. That should be the priority.

In any case the President should not have such powers. In other more developed nations amnesties are undertaken by the Legislature or subject to Legislative clearance. There's a principle of justice that cannot simply be vested in one man. Presidential amnesties are also bound to be abused and become very corrupt as suggested above. As a nation we should be limiting presidential discretion not increasing it. If we are serious about reducing corruption in the Executive Branch. 

On-line mining licenses?

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Government is planning to introduce an online cadastre system for mining licenses in the first half of next year, according to the company developing the software. Cape Town-based Spatial Dimensions will develop an Internet-based system to improve transparency in applying for, awarding and paying for mineral rights. Apparently, the idea is to do all transactions online with no cash changing hands. The system will be in operation by late in the first half of 2013.

Tanzania recently launched an online mining cadastre portal, also using the Spatial Dimension technology. Mozambique also has one in an effect to bring transparency and root out corruption. If indeed it is true, this is a step forward. It would be great if the maps of all mining licences in the provinces could also be made available, so that people can check which mining company is operating or exploring where in there village! Such a move does not solve everything, especially land squabbles, but it certainly helps know who is doing what.

Doing Business in Zambia (2013 Report)

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The World Bank last week released the latest results of its Doing Business series. The report Doing Business 2013: Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises assesses regulations affecting domestic firms in 185 economies and ranks the economies in 10 areas of business regulation, such as starting a business, resolving insolvency and trading across borders. This year’s report data cover regulations measured from June 2011 through May 2012. The Zambia report is embedded below. Unsurprisingly given the time frame coverage very little reform took place over the period due to elections and subsequent concerns. Zambia slipped 4 places on the rankings (90 in DB2012 to 94 in DB2013) but this is not because it got worse, but because it undertook less reforms (not all the supposed reforms are necessary good!). 
Doing Business 2013 - Zambia Report

MF - Zambia Watch (November 2012)

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Press Release No. 12/414
November 5, 2012

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Lusaka October 25-November 5, 2012 to review economic developments and prospects. The mission had fruitful discussions with Hon. Alexander Chikwanda, Minister of Finance and National Planning; Dr. Michael Gondwe, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, and other senior officials as well as representatives from the private sector. At the conclusion of the visit in Lusaka today, Mr. John Wakeman-Linn, mission chief for Zambia, released the following statement:

The Zambian economy has performed well so far in 2012. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be around 7.3 percent, which is particularly impressive in the current uncertain global economic environment. Inflation is likely to slightly exceed the Bank of Zambia target of 7 percent for end-2012 as a result of food price rises, but remains well under control. The mission welcomes the fact that the budget deficit for 2012 is likely to be close to the targeted level of 4.1 percent of GDP. Revenue performance has been better than expected, a result of improved revenue administration. Total expenditures have been somewhat larger than budgeted, with spending overruns on wages and goods and services partially offset by a shortfall in capital spending.

“While aggregate budget figures are thus generally encouraging, there were some expenditure areas that indicate challenges. While recorded expenditures on maize purchases were as budgeted (K300 billion), roughly K1.4 trillion was needed to pay for the purchase of the 2012 maize harvest. To finance these purchases, it was necessary for the government to guarantee commercial bank loans to the Food Reserve Agency of over K900 billion. In addition, the budget allocation for the pension fund was insufficient to prevent the accumulation of new pension arrears.

“The mission welcomes the introduction, by the Bank of Zambia, of the policy rate, as a first step toward modernizing the implementation of monetary policy in Zambia, and commends the central bank for keeping inflation in check. In addition, the accumulation of gross international reserves in 2012 is likely to be broadly in line with the Bank of Zambia’s target of just over $425 million. Imports, however, have grown significantly more than expected, with the result that—on current trends—reserve coverage is likely to be only 3.0 months of imports at end-2012, unchanged from end-2011 and well below the Bank of Zambia’s medium-term goal for reserve cover of four months of imports.

“The mission congratulates the authorities on the successful launch of Zambia’s first Eurobond. The mission also welcomes the decisions the authorities have taken for the use of these funds in 2012 and 2013. Using this commercial financing to finance high priority capital spending including the repayment of a short-term debt to finance roads infrastructure development reflects prudent fiscal management.

Prospects again look good for Zambia’s economy in 2013. Barring further deterioration in the global economy, real GDP growth should be close to 8 percent. Under the current monetary policy stance, the mission projects that inflation will be 6 percent. The mission supports the aggregate targets in the government’s 2013 budget. Given spending and projected tax revenues and grants, the fiscal deficit is likely to be close to 4 percent of GDP, in part due to one-time capital expenditures financed from the recent Eurobond issuance.

“It will be important to keep civil servant wages in line with the budget. Further increases in civil service wages, beyond what has been budgeted, would make it extremely difficult for the government to finance the planned—and necessary—increases in capital spending, as well as spending on health and education, in 2013 and beyond. It would also intensify existing pressures on private sector wages, with potentially adverse consequences for employment creation and inflation. Finally, the budget allocation for the pension fund is again insufficient to prevent the accumulation of new pension arrears.

“There are near-term downside risks for the Zambian economy, arising from the uncertain prospects for the global economy. The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook baseline projection projects 2013 global growth 3.6 percent—½ percent lower than projected in April. In addition, more pessimistic scenarios are presented in which global growth could be as much as 2 percentage points lower still. While the Zambian economy has fared well so far, further deterioration in global economic conditions could squeeze trade credit lines, reduce demand for Zambian exports, and lower copper prices. It will be important for the Zambian authorities to prepare contingency plans, in the event that one or more of these pessimistic scenarios materialize.”

The mission thanks the authorities for their hospitality, cooperation, and constructive discussions.

Transport Watch (Various)

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Recent transport related developments :

Government is about to embark on ‘Pave Zambia 2000’, a programme with an initial budget of K150 billion, meant to develop township roads countrywide. It plans to pave about 2, 000 kilometres of township roads using labour-intensive paving blocks and cobblestone technology. The labour intensive technology would be piloted in 15 sites across the 10 provinces and that this would create more than 20, 000 short term jobs. The project is expected to be launched before the end of the year.

Transport Minister Christopher Yaluma announced recently that the completion of the most expensive road in Zambia, the K1.25 trillion Mongu-Kalabo road will be delayed again due to the "terrain in the Western province". The nation's most cost and inefficient road project is being constructed Chinese company, AVIC International. If the word "construction" is not an overstatement.

Ministry of Transport PS Francis Kamanga was fired last month. The President’s decision comes slightly over a week after he took over the running of the Road Development Agency (RDA), which falls under the Ministry of Transport. RDA is involved in delivering an ambitious programme Link 8000. Zambia plans to spend $5.6 billion on building roads over the next five years under a programme to modernise infrastructure. About 2,300 km (1,430 miles) of roads would be built at a cost of 7.9 trillion kwacha ($1.6 billion) under the first phase of the project.

RDA has awarded a K278.8 billion contract to Copperfields Mining Services Limited, a Zambian contractor, to tar the 70-kilometre Pedicle Road. RDA recently terminated the contract awarded to Fratelli Locci of Italy for the construction of Pedicle Road at a cost of over K300 billion.

Government has decided to engage a new contractor for the K420 billion Kasama-Mporokoso Road because the current contractor, Sable Contractors’ pace has been too slow. Sable Contractors was awarded the contract for the 163km stretch of gravel road a year ago but failed to meet the parameters set within the contract.

Costs of rebasing the Kwacha

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The costs of rebasing the Kwacha on businesses are becoming more clear. The benefits will always be less tangible. 

Standard Chartered Bank Plc revealed early October that the rebasing will cost it K5 billion in terms of systems and infrastructure upgrade. Part of the money will also go towards staff training in order to ensure a smooth transition to the new kwacha.  National Savings and Credit Bank (NATSAVE) revealed late October that it has so far spent K1 billion on the initial preparation of the rebasing of the Kwacha. The money has gone on reconfiguration of the IT platform and general implementation of the rebasing preparation in its 27 branches across the country. This is just for starters! A reasonable guess would be that the the proposal would lead to business costs over K1 trillion. Most of these are passed onto consumers one way or the other! Many Zambians have failed to grasp the simple point that most costs, if not all, of rebasing the Kwacha are paid  by consumers. Business will not simply take on the costs, unless the competition is perfectly competitive (and even then under only certain assumptions).

As for the benefits - there are no real economic benefits to society apart from "computational costs" to grand parents. In theory government benefits from reverse seigniorage - but that seems to be limited because Government will allow people to change up to 2015 in an effort to minimise "menu" costs. So government wont actually make that much money from the short fall in the old Kwacha exchanges for the new! Atleast we can say it is not intended to swindle. But it is still poorly designed.

It is sad that this was a purely political decision. No single economic assessment was done by GRZ!  This of course is largely due to the "blind faith" of ordinary Zambians in the ability of government to think through things. Too many Zambians are content with simply saying, "government has thought through it, so it must be true". It is 2012, it is shocking posture to hold that can only be explained by the psychological effects of the colonial legacy. More critical thinking is needed among our people. We are lacking this as a nation. Government is certainly not smarter than you. The reason no economic analysis was done in this instance is because it knows that real economic evidence will undermine its conclusions. As "intelligent customers" we need to hold it to account. Which of course is why this website exists - to give you the information you need, allow you to think through them and then influence the powers that be!

Mining Watch

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Latest developments in the mining sector

Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) has approved the construction of the US$450 million second acid plant by Mopani Copper Mines (MCM) Plc in Mufulira as part of the current smelter upgrade project. The smelter upgrade project is aimed at enhancing the smelting capacity and the reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions by over 95 per cent. The acid plant has a design production capacity of over 850,000 tonnes per annum which is twice the capacity of the first acid plant which was installed in 2007 and currently captured and converted about 50 per cent of sulphur dioxide emissions.
The upgrade is scheduled to be completed by December 2013.

Mines Minister Yamfwa Mukanga MP says Government will introduce an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Act that will compel all mining firms operating in Zambia to disclose their production figures and all material payments they make :
Zambia is considering improving the legislation so as to strengthen the legal framework by introducing an EITI Act which will among other things institutionalise, protect and ensure that all those institutions such as EITI are fully incorporated and protected....We want to see a situation where this revenue that will be generated as means of our compliance would go into creating more jobs because [this is] part of our campaign promises. As a new government we want to see more money in the pocket of our people and we want to ensure our people have more jobs" (Source : Time of Zambia)
The Government is also considering extending EITI to fisheries and forestry. It is important to get a handle on timber production in particular. Many African countries, including Zambia, are losing out on illegal smuggling and general exploitation.

Sharing the Proceeds of Mining, 6th Edition

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Mathias Mphande on the perennial question of mining revenues :
How to benefit from the mining sector depends on choices you make as a country and mining is capital intensive and requires sufficient investments which can take the entire government funding if nationalisation is put in place. So since mining capital is mainly foreign, the only linkage the mines have on the local economies is through taxes....So government should find ways of maximising revenue collection from the mines. But even when taxes are captured effectively, governments and its civil servants spend these monies in a greedy manner such that the social welfare of the people is not improved. What can Zambia show for the huge taxes the government gets when patients are still sleeping on the floor at UTH and university students are still squatting and learning with few teaching aids, yet advocates of better taxes are called ‘lunatics’ by government officials....Kenya, which predominantly doesn’t produce minerals, has better economic indicators than Zambia, and Peru, which is rich in minerals, is poor compared to Brazil, a non-mining country, while Ivory Coast doesn’t have minerals, but its economy is better than oil-producing Nigeria...
Part of the answer according to Mphande is for Zambia to create a mineral resource stabilisation fund that can be used to develop other economic sectors. I think a  stabilisation fund is a much weak idea compared to competing alternatives. Isn't part of real answer already in legislation - mineral revenue sharing with local areas? 5% of mineral revenues is meant to go to mining areas. Which the last administration failed to implement. The PF championed it, but they have gone quiet now they are in government. Perhaps they are working to increase that local contribution? At 5% the local contribution is certainly very low! 30% or thereabout would be ideal. But the key is enforcement as no actual revenues are currently being transferred - the process remains "work in progress" since we flagged it up last time. See related posts below.


Related Posts :

Costs of Rebasing the Kwacha (A Response)

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By Francis Ilunga

The article Costs of Rebasing the Kwacha, that was published on 7 November 2012, raised important questions, which cannot go without comment. Below are a few observations concerning the said article:

1. The author has alleged that businesses will spend a lot of money on reconfiguration of their IT platforms, and that most of these costs will be passed onto consumers in one way or the other. The author has however neglected to mention the costs that most businesses incur in reconfiguring/ customizing standard packages (accounting/audit, etc), that they acquire from time to time. You will appreciate the fact that the packages used in Zambia are developed in jurisdictions where values, at a maximum, tend to be in millions. The present situation in Zambia, where some organizations, especially banks record values in billions or trillions of Kwacha, requires further customization of such packages in order to widen data fields, which tend to be very costly. With the rebasing of the Kwacha, businesses will no longer be spending money on the reconfiguration / customization of newly acquired packages. The same goes for ATM machines, which have to be customized to dispense millions of Kwacha, as opposed to hundreds and a few thousands in jurisdictions where they are manufactured. Therefore, apart from this one off cost that businesses will incur in recalibrating their IT platforms to conform with the rebased currency, it is easy to see that businesses will stand to benefit more from rebasing than they will lose.

2. The author has also neglected to mention the fact that the K5 billion that Standard Chartered Bank Plc, has set aside in terms of systems and infrastructure upgrade, is just about 3% of the bank’s year to date profits of about K164 billion, as per the bank’s financial statements for the quarter ended 30th September 2012. The author has deliberately left out this fact to create an impression that the bank will spend beyond its capability, for the sole purpose of justifying his argument that the bank will have no option but to recover this huge expense from its clients through increased bank charges. As a matter of fact, everybody is advised to report any funny charges on their bank accounts, or any suspicious pricing after the rebasing, to the Bank of Zambia, and other agencies. This measure has been taken to ensure that the cost of rebasing is not passed on to consumers. Therefore, the author’s argument that banks/business houses will pass on costs of rebasing to consumers is just an hallucination. Further, banks and other business houses were informed about this exercise in January this year, and most of them have already raised/set aside enough resources for the associated ground work, in readiness for the change over to the new currency.

3. The idea of rebasing of the Kwacha was conceived in 2003, but couldn’t be implemented because prevailing macroeconomic fundamentals at the time did not permit such. For instance, high levels of inflation, would have meant returning to higher value denominations within a short space of time, as was the case in Zimbabwe. In the recent past, inflation has slowed down and dropped to a single digit. This low level of inflation, coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions, has provided an opportune time to rebase the Zambian currency. Therefore, the rebasing of the Kwacha has nothing to do with politics as the author alleges. It is purely a Bank of Zambia decision and something that the bank has been working towards for some time. You will be pleased to note that the last 3 zeros on the current K50000 , K20000 , K10000 , K5000 , K1000 notes (in red), are all small and raised, and the reason for this is simple, the BOZ had in mind the idea of rubbing off these small raised zeros at an opportune moment, and that opportune moment is now. In other words, the idea of rebasing the Kwacha, was conceived from the time the current currency structure was being implemented. You may also wish to recall that the large number of zeros on our current currency denominations, is a consequence of high inflation rates that Zambia experienced over a prolonged period of time.

4. There are many other benefits associated with the rebasing of the Kwacha, besides "computational costs" to grandparents, as the author rudely put it. Some of the benefits are as follows:

a. The expression of currency in a new and smaller equivalent scale (thousands and millions as opposed to billions and trillions), will simplify /enhance book-keeping, understanding of accounts and reduce the drudgery in transactions. The ease of expressing monetary values, will help in minimizing errors associated with the inputting of financial data and time spent to review such data.

b. Rebasing will lead to greater confidence in the currency. It is just common logic that when there are many zeros in the currency denominations, people lose confidence in the local currency. In other words, a rebased currency improves the perception individuals have of the national economy, and I will leave it to the author to speculate on the benefits associated with increased confidence in the national currency.

c. Rebasing will allow the Central Bank to re -introduce coins in the high circulating denominations, such as the K1000 and K500, thereby increasing durability and consequently resulting into savings on costs incurred by the BOZ, in replacing the current high circulating denominations.

d. Re-introduction of the culture of using coins in Zambia will encourage technology transfer from developed nations in areas such as the use of vending machines, parking meters, toll gates, etc.

In view of the above, it is my personal opinion that the article Costs of Rebasing the Kwacha is misguided and analytically flawed.

The author is declares interest as an employee of the Bank of Zambia. The comments are made solely in his private capacity as an ordinary citizen of Zambia. 

Chinese mining in Southern Africa

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A recent fascinating report on the impact of Chinese firms and policies on extractive industries in Southern Africa. A useful read indeed that helps to contextualise Zambia's experience within the broader Chinese activity in the region - look out for the narrative on Zimbabwe in particular. 
China Southern African and Extractive Industries

From China with debts

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More borrowing from China - we are becoming ever more indebted to the Dragon in the east. Government earlier this month confirmed that it had obtained a US$150m (K750bn) loan from Exim Bank of China for a new water supply project with China Civil Engineering Construction to help boost potable supplies to homes and commercial areas in Lusaka. The pact signed this week would involve the construction of a new bulk water supply line from Kafue to Lusaka as well as upgrading the distribution system in Lusaka and neighboring areas to expand supplies over a two-year period. The project compliments the Lusaka water supply program funded for free by the U.S. government through its Millennium Challenge Corp.

More money is certainly needed. Lusaka Water and Sewerage Company needs about US$600 million (K3 trillion) in the next five years to improve water supply. So far it has secured, through GRZ and donors, US$350 million (K1.8 trillion). That said, this is a classic Chinese deal - you borrow from them and they do the work. One does not know how such deals work. Very little of it is made public. And therein lies the problem - GRZ continues to borrow endlessly without a clear legislative framework for managing debt. When are we going to learn as a people? We cannot trust politicians to manage public debt because they always want to borrow to get re-elected. There's nothing free - someone has to pay for the current debt we keep piling.
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