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A thumbs up!

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Moody's last week issued a first public rating assignment to Zambia as it expands its rating of African economics. It has assigned Zambia a fairly strong rating of B1 (still far from investment grade though). According to Moody :
"The outlook on these ratings is stable. The B1 ratings reflect the following key factors: 1) Expectation of continued rapid growth, which should support economic diversification and over time increase the country's low wealth levels. 2) The country's track record of political stability, which benefits its developing institutional strength. 3) Zambia's low albeit improved financial strength, following debt forgiveness from official creditors in 2006"
The B1 rating puts Zambia better than some Eastern European countries and even some Latin American ones. It is a good indicator that things are broadly on track - as far as the markets are concerned. But of course markets think differently. More detail via Finanzen.

A Foolish Obsession

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Government obsession with establishing a national airline continues. Tourism D Minister David Phiri says the tourism sector would not progress without one :
The question of connectivity is a central factor in the development of Zambia’s tourism sector. This can only come about where there is a viable national airline. There is consensus in both Government and industry that Zambia needs a viable national airline..
This is economic folly. How is a national airline going to improve connectivity? Basic transport economics suggest that the reason we have limited connectivity from/to Zambia can only be down to three things : (i) poor passenger demand on certain routes; (ii) limited runaway capacity; and, (iii) regulatory constraints. The big one there is passenger demand. If there's long haul passenger demand many airlines will gladly put on the flights. But one thing is certainly true : supply won't create demand. 

As things stand there's insufficient demand on long haul routes to run a profitable airline. At present key destinations are already serviced. Where does Mr Phiri think there's demand gap that's yearning to be filled by tourists? His he planning to fly directly to the USA? All tourists coming to Zambia now have options with BA, KLM and Emirates. Where exactly are is hoping to fly this new airline to make money in tourism? Unless Mr Phiri expects the new government airline would run empty and subsidised routes - all paid by taxes of poor Zambians who will never dream of flying abroad!

Corruption Watch (REA, Prisons)

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Recent corruption allegations.

The ACC is investigating rampant financial abuse worth billions of Kwacha at the Rural Electrification Authority (REA). This follows revelations from Auditor General who has just completed a 30-day audit of the institution. Earlier this year some concerned REA employees sent a confidential dossier to President Michael Sata cataloguing many abuses at REA by the CEO Wilfred Serenje (now fired), including general theft by public servant, nepotism, corruption and victimisation.  There are so many government agencies that exist just to waste public money. 

The ACC recently arrested two government officers for corruption and abuse of office involving K1.5 billion meant for rehabilitation of Livingstone Central Prison. Mwala Katundu a quantity surveyor has been arrested for certifying that works at the Livingstone Central Prison were fully done when in fact not. The other is Emmanuel Nguni an Assistant Director of Monitoring and Evaluation who received funds in exchange of awarding the contract. Both are at the Ministry of Works and Supply. The duo are remanded in custody and have denied the charge and will appear in court soon.

List of Prominent Zambians For A "Windfall Tax" On Mining

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This post is regularly updated with quotes from leading analysts and public figures urging the government to reintroduce the windfall tax. Please scroll to the bottom to see the latest contributor  :
"It is an injustice for the government to only collect US$ 77.6 million from copper exports valued at US$2.9 billion. And I do not see that the mines themselves in their heart of hearts would consider it an injustice to pay extra more" 

“Why would any patriotic citizen or leader stop that windfall tax? That issue is so crucial such that the civil society and ordinary citizens will continue to argue they must impose that tax...I am also urging Parliament to reintroduce this topic and even if they get defeated, they must ask for a division and we must know which people are supporting the government over this failed and imprudent manner of taxing the mines. They should be named during the campaigns that these are the people who refused to have taxes imposed on the mines and let them go to the Copperbelt and campaign on that basis.” 
- Bob Sichinga (Economic Consultant)
“The government seems to have deliberately chosen to allow Zambians to continue wallowing in poverty. They are not showing that they are listening to the people. The copper that is being mined will run out one day. Even the investors whom they are being protective about, look at the poor types of jobs and wages that they are giving our people. If they say they won't re-introduce windfall taxes because this would scare away investors, in whose interest are these investors existing if Zambians cannot get any meaningful benefits from their investments?"
Patrick Mucheleka (Executive Director, CSPR)
"His attitude that he doesn’t care and no more questioning of removal of windfall tax, is retrogressive. He is a President who does not care about the welfare of his people. The wealth of his country is taken away by other people"

- Fr Patrick Chibuye(Mpika Catholic Diocese)

Update (19 November 2010) :
"It has become a joke in the West that foolish Zambians will give you everything you ask for while they humiliate themselves by walking naked. This quote is from a so-called good investor in Zambia....I have heard numerous rubbish from the government that if they increase the taxes, they will deter investors coming to Zambia. This is nonsense and a sign of lack of ability as they do not grasp the world climate on the economy...."

"So the prices will keep high and going up. The newcomers will be many, perhaps we, ourselves under ZCCM-IH can join or takeover and approach the mining sector as a business this time. If somebody tells you the investors will pack up and go from Zambia, they are either making false statements or they simply do not understand the word economics especially as it relates to supply and demand of copper in the open-market.."

"Nobody will do it for us. Before, we gave everything to the British and now it is the so called "new investors". Good investors with a heart will accept tax of eight per cent on royalty and 25 per cent on windfall. I will bring in another local tax for local communities of two per cent on mineral rights that goes directly to the development of the Copperbelt and other areas. For investors, these are peanuts, but mean a lot to us Zambians. We are rich on paper but still run a kitchen economy. Why?"

- Prof Clive Chirwa (Bolton University)

Update (26 November 2010) :
"This is scandalous, to say the least, to get less than ten per cent of the total revenue from a commodity which is not replaceable. What these people who are calling for windfall tax are saying is very important. Let Honourable Musokotwane forget the name ‘windfall tax’. If they are so scared and are afraid of windfall tax because it came in Mwanawasa’s speech, because it came in Magande’s budget, let them find other names that are suitable to their ears and their tongues, as long as it earns more money out of what is being extracted and leaving holes for us.."

- Ng'andu Magande (Former Finance Minister)

Update (26 November 2010) :
"It is hard to understand why Dr Musokotwane is coming out so strongly against the re-introduction of windfall tax when that is what Zambians want. In fact, I have not heard any mining company oppose windfall tax as strongly as Musokotwane and President Rupiah Banda"

Update (26 December 2010) :
"The windfall tax should be reinstated with some modifications to accommodate the concerns expressed by mining companies but not to the detriment of Zambians...Zambia should get a fair share, 50/50 share because we are partners with these investors. Zambia’s contribution is the resources, and the investor’s contribution is the investment....f this is what he said, I am sorry to say that it was a misrepresentation of facts. To the best of my knowledge, at no time did president Mwanawasa make a decision to scrap the windfall tax. What had happened was that the mining companies did not object to the windfall tax. They had concern with the method of calculating that tax"
- Jack Kalala(Former State House Special Assistant)
Update (2 January 2011) :
“The MMD under president Mwanawasa made some reforms with the introduction of the minerals taxation Act which introduced the windfall tax, but with Rupiah’s arrogance, calls for the re-introduction of the windfall tax are falling on deaf ears...”
- Hon Charles Milupi (ADD President)

Update (4 January 2011):
“Granted they are in power today, they should make sure they do according to the will of the Zambian people who put them there... In fact, the Zambian people are the owners of the land and the copper. If they make a decision which is not in favour of Zambians, then this should be justification to kick them out this year when the election comes because they have failed to do the will of the electorate....It is sad that this irresponsible government of the MMD must continue to argue that we will benefit through the corporate tax and not the windfall tax....We in the PF are saying posterity will judge these people harshly and those who will not survive will be hiding in shame.”
Emmanuel Chenda (PF National Treasurer)
Updated (8 January 2011):
"Can you imagine Nigeria is a far much greater economy than Zambia but they have introduced windfall tax on their oil, but here we don’t have? The people in front of us (leaders), they have eyes but they can’t see, or they can see but are not just interested...They are indifferent, because if we have more money we will put up another university in Namushakende. We will build bridges. People are living in squalor in Misisi; we will build new houses as our friends are doing in other countries. But somebody is sitting in an air conditioned office at the Ministry of Finance and says ‘we can’t collect windfall tax’, and the President is watching."
Edith Nawakwi (Former Finance Minister)
Updated (13 January 2011) :
“I know it is important to safeguard investments but the large corporations should also not be allowed to milk the country instead of helping it to grow....If they the government don’t like the word windfall tax, let them replace it. It doesn’t matter if they change the name, but whatever they will come up with should translate in increasing revenue collections to improve the lives and welfare of the people.”
Love Mutesa (Ambassador, Chairman CUTS International - Zambia)

Updated (19 January 2011) :
“We pushed for the introduction of windfall tax in 2008 because we realized that it was time for Zambia to benefit from its on mineral wealth but the government thinks otherwise and believes that we can still make enough money from variable taxes, which are not enough because miners pay a fraction.”
Dr Saviour Chishimba (President, UPP)

Updated (11 February 2011) :
"This report is very damning on the part of the mines and should be seen as a wake-up call to government....And this should not be politicized. This report means the problem may not only be confined to Mopani, but it maybe symptomatic of more complex, much longer and wider problems in the mining sector. Although this report maybe preliminary, it shows the inadequacies of our tax system.

The government has not really, maybe them mines, realise that compliance to the country’s tax policy is important....When you had the former president late Mwanawasa announce the windfall tax, a number of them foreign mining firms refused to pay. Now, you are talking about the government negotiating with the mines to pay that tax obligations. Where do you hear negotiations on that policy? Now, they are even refusing to have them auditors access to valuable information.

In light of the revelations of the audit, the windfall tax is the only tax that can secure what the government can get"

Update (13 February 2011):
"If not properly checked, multinational companies such as Mopani and many other mines will continue to under invoice and under price for purpose of tax avoidance and evasion. So it is time to come up with a tax regime that is easier to enforce and collect revenue and also to compel the mines to do more on corporate social responsibility since copper is a waste asset and soon we shall very negative environmental liabilities"
- Dr Fred Mutesa (ZED President)
"The unpleasant thing is that we have lost money because of the adamancy by Situmbeko and Mwale who insist that the mines are not making profit. In 2008 during debates to amend the mines and minerals Bill, I proposed the establishment of a Minerals Accountability Directorate which should monitor from extraction to finished products and come up with independent figures and then advise ZRA on how much to collect as revenue since ZRA lacks capacity to genuinely tax the mines."
- Hon Mwenya Musenge (Nkana Constituency)

Update (16 February 2011):
"This government's tax regime is not providing enough [revenue]. I am condemning the investors for failing to even pay what is due to Zambians...This high price of copper at US$10, 000 per tonne will only be there for a short time and after that the Zambians will have nothing to show what they benefited from it. We need to have something to show to our children when copper is gone that this is what we built from the copper taxes."
- Hon Yamfwa Mukanga (Kantanshi Constituency)

Update (3 March 2011) :
“People are not benefiting enough from the mining sector compared to the people who run these mines. The resources that are obtained from the mining sector are not trickling down to the poor people of Zambia. Out of the whole mining revenue we are only getting about three per cent which is totally unacceptable…Other countries like Chile are getting more than US$40 billion from the mines. That is why we are calling for the windfall tax in order to bring the benefits closer to the people. But what we are dealing with is a government that is siding with the mining companies; a stubborn government that does not want to listen to its people. It is clear that they are not on the side of the Zambian people”
- Hon Wylbur Simuusa (Nchanga Constituency)

Updated (1 October 2011) :
"Allow me to thank God, the genuine church leaders, The Post and the people of Zambia for the success of the just-ended elections. However, there are many things in government that need overhauling promptly. The new government should as soon as possible tackle windfall tax, labour issues, investment policies and decentralisation."
-Father Mwewa (Catholic Church)
Updated (21 November 2011) :
Many people were demanding that the Zambian people should benefit from the country’s mineral wealth. They were expecting the PF Government to adequately tax the Mining Sector to generate financial resources in order to provide better roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure. The people were calling for the re-introduction of windfall tax on copper revenue. With copper prices remaining above US$7,000 per tonne, the mines are still gaining unexpected income which is above the planned threshold of US$2,500 to US$3,000 per tonne to make profit. The PF campaigned on the platform of re-introducing the windfall tax. What has changed?
- United Party for National Development (Response to 2012 Budget)

Updated (27 March 2012) :
"We shall never be tired to call on the government to introduce windfall tax. We live in one of the richest countries in Africa amidst some of the poorest people in the world. This paradox of poverty is simply unacceptable"
- Phyllis Chikula (Platform for Social Protection Zambia)

Updated (27 March 2012):
"The Council of Churches in Zambia is one such organisation which has maintained that windfall tax was one way of ensuring that fair taxes are paid by investors in mining companies so that the proceeds could be used to develop the nation and make Zambia a better place for all but to be referred to as 'lunatics' and to dismiss the opinions of others with such strong words is unfortunate because it reduces the intelligence of others. At that time, it was our hope that they knew and they understood and fully appreciated the complexities and intricacies of the matter for them to come to that conclusion. It is unfortunate that six months down the road this campaign issue has become an issue that is only discussed by lunatics which sweeping statement may include some of the PF campaigners of windfall tax before the elections"
- Suzanne Matale (Council of Churches General Secretary)

Updated (26 May 2012) :
"It is betrayal of its people for a democratically-elected government to set conditions that support or favour the investors. The story about ensuring that the goose is not killed should be viewed also from the point that we should not let the geese become so powerful as to start dictating how many eggs it should contribute. Any investment should not disadvantage locals….A walk to the Copperbelt tells the whole story; all roads leading to all major mining towns are in deplorable state and are death traps….The government needs to start governing instead of protecting the interests of investors…..Our greatest challenge is the unclear tax system for the country. Firstly, there are so many taxes in the sector, some of which are conflicting, and are responsible for the misunderstanding that is created when companies start giving their total contribution to the treasury. We need tax policies and systems that can be understood by all; at the moment, there is a system that works for and is only understood by government and sector investors…..Zambians are justified in their speculations and cannot be blamed for concluding there is corruption and abuse of authority in the whole process”
- Nsama Chikwankwa (CCZ Social and Economic Justice)


Updated (3 June 2012):
"The PF government should consider introducing windfall taxes...The benefits of a windfall tax include proceeds being directly used by governments to bolster funding for social programmes. The profits that will come from the tax should be reinvested to promote innovation that will in turn benefit society as a whole"
- Maureen Mwanawasa (Former First Lady)


Updated (8 June 2012):
“One of the things that we have not been good at is demanding answers. We have been told it is not practical to introduce the windfall tax and I think we haven’t really asked the question around what practicality they are talking about...Can somebody break it down for us in figures so that we are able to understand that what we are calling for is indeed ridiculous…can they (PF Government) demonstrate to us so that when we look at these figures we will be able to say there is something truthful in what they are telling us. We shouldn’t be content with answers like ‘you are lunatics’. Yes we are lunatics but even lunatics sometimes get to a level where they want to know"
- Pamela Chisanga ( ActionAid Country Director)


Updated (12 June 2012):
"Mr Sata was on the Copperbelt asking people to give him more time; who told him to talk about the 90 days when he had a five-year mandate? That's corrupting people's minds. It is sad for Zambia to have leaders who keep on changing goalposts. Let them concentrate on fulfilling their promises to the people of Zambia. They should put more money in people's pockets, lower taxes, create jobs for the youths, and do something about the windfall tax and the Barotse issue."
Edith Mataka (MMD Chair Copperbelt)

Updated (30 October 2012):
"It is time those things which were put in place to help the mines survive the 2008 crisis are reversed so that the sector begins to benefit even the ordinary people....after analysis and reflections this year, where we tried to look at other possibilities of the government raising more revenues, we still arrive at the same position and this position is that we should have reintroduced the windfall tax years ago...We still feel windfall tax is the best option as copper prices are currently still high. We feel that the windfall tax as a matter of agency be reintroduced. This is in view of other taxes which are not performing as much as they should; and this is the variable profit tax.”
- Sydney Mwansa(Civil Society for Poverty Reduction)
Updated (7 November 2012):
The country has lost another opportunity to get benefits from the country’s endowments. Introducing windfall tax is the only way the Government can get revenue instead of ordinary citizens subsidising the mines..
- Tommy Singongi (Consumer Unit Trust Society)

Update (8 November 2012):
"The witnesses that appeared before [parliamentary committee on estimates] expressed concern on the low tax contributions to the budget by the mining sector despite high copper prices, yet the sector constitutes three quarters of the country’s exports...The low tax contribution by the mines in the midst of high copper prices has kept the call by people to continue advocating for windfall taxes.”
- Highvie Hamududu MP (Chairperson, Expanded Parliamentary Committee on Estimates)

Timber License Suspension

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Government recently suspended all timber licences "to protect the depleting forests around the country". Ministerial statement is embedded below. During the suspension period, no indigenous logs, cants or poles will be felled or transported to any destination. Any found will be confiscated and forfeited to the State. Natural Resources Minister Wylbur Simuusa says the move would NOT apply to exotic timber plantations or timber that is legally extracted, processed and was in timber yards, factories or markets.

Mr Simuusa says he has received many complaints : not all timber license orders are abiding by their terms; a lot of debris and branch wood is left on stumps affecting natural regeneration; many forest licenses have not demarcated their boundaries; poor or lack of fire management regimes; rampant local boundary disputes; and, over cutting and illegal purchasing of timber from local communities and chiefdoms.

The ban appears fraught with difficulties from the start. It has been opposed by the Zambia National Association for Saw Millers who have asked the government to immediately reverse the ban on the harvesting, movement and trade of hard wood. It says the ban on the issuance of hard wood licences will only encourage smuggling, illegal harvesting and trade of such timer products. Those dealing in hard wood have not only lost business but many jobs have been lost in the timber sector following the ban of hard wood timber licenses. The association says the country had enough forests stocks and therefore sees no need for an immediate ban.

The problem there seems to be that this is another poor consultation. A key mistake the MMD made is ran government like a closed shop with no clear consultation with the public. It treated government policy as “personal to holder”. It was particularly notorious for not issuing Green and White Papers as is customary in well ran governments around the globe. These papers were replaced by poor "Cabinet Policy Papers" that ordinary Zambians never saw or commented on. Zambians were treated with impunity and taken for granted. Only in rare instances would one outside the ministry be lucky enough to hear the odd "Ministerial Statement" which often was poorly debated in the House. Consultation is the hallmark of effective government. A lot of problems can avoided if only Government can consult more widely. Of course consultation must never be an excuse for policy inaction, therefore balance must be found between open consultation and work of the government. But on key decisions being made including this one, there's minimal public consultation.

But even outside consultation problems there are serious questions around enforcement. We have seen with the Tujilijili ban it is costly to enforce ban and all it does is push the trading more underground. Perhaps the "open nature" of the timber business lends itself to easier enforcement. It is one to watch.  
Ministerial Statement - Timber License Ban

Monitoring Revenues

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GRZ is pressing ahead with the proposal in the 2013 Budget to make it mandatory for ministries, provinces, spending agencies and revenue collecting statutory bodies to deposit all collections in form of fees and fines directly to the treasury from January 2013. All institutions would deposit money through revenue transit accounts at commercial banks. Commercial banks have already signed service legal agreements that would compel them to remit funds to the Bank of Zambia within 24 hours.

An interesting development alongside this is that GRZ is already rolling out a pilot that will allow people to pay fees for passports and other citizenship fees through Indo-Zambia Bank. This is intended minimise human contact with cash especially in areas where banking services are available. The pilot is would focus on Lusaka, Livingstone, Chipata, Kabwe and Ndola with view other provincial centres to follow.

Both initiatives are certainly long overdue. Particularly the Indo-Zambia pilot. The only problem there is how this is rolled out across critical areas like police fines, etc. It is there where corruption is rife. And then difficult questions follow : how was Indo-Zambia was selected? Was this through competitive bidding? Related to that, how much is Indo-Zambia making from the process? Is the public now going to pay more for these processes? Who pays? These questions are important especially if the idea is rolled out more widely.

Is the Government subsidy to maize millers benefiting consumers?

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The powerful graphic from this recent IAPRI paper clearly shows the answer is NO. Very little of the treasury costs involved in selling grain to millers at abnormally low prices are benefiting Zambian consumers. Particularly note worthy is that the reduction from M8 to M9 is not passed on irrespective of the cost level. The authors put this down to lack of competition in the commercial milling sector, which has paradoxically become more amplified with the rise in subsidies :
Maize subsidies are perceived as government’s indirect support to commercial millers. But it is a well-documented fact that even small millers (hammer mills) play a major role in ensuring competition in the grain milling industry in the country. Therefore, if the playing field is not levelled  their activities are hampered by selective subsidies and as a result lessening competition in the grain milling industry. The end results are high marketing margins between wholesale maize grain and breakfast meal retail prices.

The foregone analysis indicates that selective subsidies conferred to certain players in the market do not necessarily have desired consequences when the market is not fully competitive. If the market were competitive, then subsidies conferred to millers would be passed along fully to consumers, which appear not to be the case in Zambia. Subsidies to maize millers have instead proved to be a drain on the government treasury without trickling down anticipated benefits to intended beneficiaries – urban consumers in this case.

How do we solve this problem?

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A friend has raised the question of why "open defecation" has been going up, even though improvements have been noted elsewhere. Answers on the post card please!

A Problem of Immunity

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By Chola Mukanga

The First Draft Constitution provides specific provisions on presidential immunity. Article 96 states: (1) Civil proceedings shall not be instituted or continued against the President, or a person who is performing the executive functions, in respect of anything done, or omitted to be done; and, (2) The President, or a person performing the executive functions, subject to clause (6), shall be immune from criminal proceedings.

Parts (3) - (8) provides further detail relating to ex-presidents, including the possibility of Parliament lifting immunity after a two-thirds vote. These provisions of course are largely in line with the current Constitution with minor alterations. The bottom line is that all sitting presidents are immune from civil and criminal proceedings. Ex-presidents are permanently immune until parliament decides otherwise.

It should be noted that the immunity is for both criminal and civil actions. And though it relates to solely to "legal proceedings", it is more or less equivalent to immunity from criminal investigations as well because some of the criminal evidence can only be obtained by search warrants or record warn and caution statements from the presidential suspect. This is certainly the way investigating agencies currently understand the provisions. As this 2010 media report exemplifies:
Drug Enforcement Commission (DEC) spokesperson John Nyawali has said the commission cannot question or investigate the sources of campaign finances which President Rupiah Banda has been donating to various NGOs and individual citizens. Mr. Nyawali said the commission was limited in its mandate because the sitting president enjoyed absolute immunity to such investigations. He was reacting to numerous calls from the civil society organisations who were calling on the commission to extend their investigations of money laundering to the ruling party.
The situation makes it difficult to ever impeach a sitting president, which in turn means the President is not only above the law but he towers above all criminal prevention and legal institutions. Indeed, de-facto he is above Parliament because it is nearly impossible for Parliament to impeach a sitting president. How else can impeachment allegations ever be investigated if removal of immunity is required for thorough investigations? One would need to lift immunity to investigate the president and then impeach him and then prosecution. But to lift the immunity you need cast iron proof evidence to persuade MPs which is impossible without investigations. This is the de facto power. It is a paradoxical situation that has not been thought through by those who have sat on constitutional commission after commission.

The real question of course is whether all of this matters! That boils down to whether it is beneficial to the country to have immunity at all. Does immunity simply breed corruption? To answer that we must necessarily turn to empirical evidence. A new paper examines evidence from a range of countries on that very issue. It emphatically concludes:
Our empirical investigation demonstrates that immunity provisions are strongly associated with poorer governance; stronger immunity is associated with greater corruption, bribery, and the diversion of public funds after controlling for a number of economic, political, historical, and demographic determinants and correlates of corruption. Our theoretical model illustrates how legally unaccountable politicians may attempt to enhance their chances of re-election through illegal means by supporting interest groups through lax law enforcement, non-collection of taxes, and other forms of favouritism. Interest groups return the favour through favourable propaganda, generous campaign financing, or even outright vote-buying.

The influential work of North (1990), as well as the books of Besley and Persson (2011), Acemoglu and Robinson (2012), and the therein cited research, argue that informal and formal institutions, such as the constitutional provisions that we examine here, can play a pivotal role in the social and economic prosperity of a nation. Our research uncovers serious evidence that provisions that supply politicians with immunity from criminal prosecution should be reconsidered due to their link with poor governance outcomes.
That would seem to suggest that we should be looking to eliminate it. The usual argument in favour of criminal immunity is that the president may undertake illegal activities to protect the Republic whilst in office and he should be protected from that. That argument lacks merit because it is not obvious why someone should need immunity if they are acting within their legal powers. It is surely up to the to Courts to decide  if  indeed a specific president’s action were in the national interest because the president can only act within his/her constitutional powers. To the best of my knowledge our laws has no discretion for illegal activities by anyone. We are all equal before the law.

The only credible alternative explanation for criminal immunity therefore is that it protects individuals against politically motivated charges. But surely the answer to that is to ensure you have a sufficiently independent and robust judiciary. Indeed it might be argued that removing immunity not only reduces corruption, it may also incentivise the Executive to have a robust judicial system. When their immunity is secure the president has little incentive to encourage judicial independence.

Across the world, immunity regimes in democratic countries vary between two extremes. On one side of the spectrum stand countries without criminal immunity protection, exemplified by the United Kingdom. While the Prime Minister and his Cabinet may speak without the threat of legal retaliation, there exists no procedural obstacles that impede or limit the criminal prosecution of these political actors. At the other extreme lie countries with strong criminal immunity regimes, exemplified by Paraguay. Where any arrest or prosecution of a member of the legislature must be authorized by a two-thirds majority vote in the legislative chamber to which the legislator belongs. Should prosecutors wish to take action against a minister or the president, the lower house of the legislature must first impeach the politician by a vote of two-thirds, followed by a two-thirds majority vote for removal in the Paraguayan Senate. It is within the sole purview of the Senate to determine whether the removed politician should be referred to a competent court, which may only then proceed with criminal prosecution. Zambia is closer to Paraguay in terms of presidential immunity though it retains significant latitude on members of parliament and ministers. The challenge now is to move closer to the United Kingdom. Sadly, this does not appear to be something that the current generation of politicians would be willing to support.

One potential compromise they may accept is to allow the President enjoy criminal immunity during the presidency but ensure but this immunity expires automatically upon leaving office. This concedes the argument for him to get on with the job unimpeded and free from countless criminal lawsuits. But in doing so we should be clear that what would be happening is “suspending prosecutions” rather than introduction of criminal immunity. The public needs to understand that no one is above the law. It is vital that criminal prosecutions can be brought at immediately when he/she leaves for crimes committed against the State.

The situation in terms of civil lawsuits is more straightforward. The president should never be immune from civil actions against him/her in his/her personal capacity or be disallowed from commencing civil actions in such capacity, at any point. It seems to me that it would be unfair to provide for suspension of such legal actions during his/her time in office. Zambians have right asked, why should people who are owed money by a president wait 10 years or why should a president be allowed to develop a property in dispute leaving no realistic recourse once he has left office? The current constitutional provisions (maintained in the Draft Constitution) are unfair in that the president can sue others while in office but proceedings against him/her cannot be commenced or continued during this time. It therefore important that immunity is removed for civil lawsuits completely.

What are the most problematic factors for businesses?

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From the recent Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. No surprises there because the challenges of finance are well known. In rural areas the issues are largely down to lack of tenure security which increases the cost (or absence)  of borrowing. In urban areas general issues around credit defaults and lack of an effective credit reference systems continue to keep rates structurally high. Many solutions have been suggested ranging from subsidised credit to government banks, with little success. 

The Scandal that never was

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An interesting development occurred earlier this month when the courts concluded that the highly publicised scandal was not a criminal scandal. After another expensive investigation and prosecution that lasted three years, the Courts concluded that the Kapoko scandal, which damaged Zambia's international reputation, was not a criminal scandal after all.

Henry Kapoko and eight others were acquitted by the Magistrate Court for theft and money laundering involving K1.9 billion. The court also acquitted Mr Kapoko and a lodge manager of issuing cheques on an insufficiently-funded account. The acquittal brought to an end a 3 year court process during which time the accused lost their jobs and had property seized. Magistrate Kenneth Mulife said the prosecution had failed to prove the case beyond reasonable doubt.

There are still no indications on whether the State will appeal. One wonders whether this whole process has cost the nation more than the amount allegedly stolen by Kapoko. Sadly nearly a month down the line, the important questions are still not being asked by the media and general public. the trial is already being forgetten! But questions must be asked : was the prosecution politically motivated? Were the prosecutors incompetent? Why do these cases take so long to prosecute? And where does this leave the state of prosecutions in Zambia? Where does it leave public confidence in our judicial system? What should be done to ensure this never happens again? And why did Zambia pay back the money? Was money really lost, and if was, how was it lost in the first place? 

The failure to bring about the conviction follows a long list of incompetence by Zambian high profile prosecution failures. It appears Government prosecution team is in dire need of revitalisation. There are also broader questions about whether we need to reform how the Courts deal with corruption cases.

Zambia Plundered!

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The much talked about new documentary of the plunder of Zambia copper by multinationals is available on You Tube. Two things struck me. First, how pivotal the death of Mwanawasa was for the mining companies. If Levy had not died, the windfall tax would never have been reversed and Zambia would be a better country for it. Rupiah Banda was a perfect present for the mining companies. Secondly, I was struck by how we still do not have a public inquiry into the mining privatisation process. Surely that is the mother of all inquiries we need! Everything else pales in comparison!

Please share he video around.

No tourist visas?

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Sylvia Masebo MP (Tourism Minister) recently signalled that Government may soon abolish Visa fees for "tourists" visiting Zambia. The proposal will be tabled before Cabinet, following appeals by some Lodge owners who are complaining that visits to Zambia have been dwindling due to "prohibitive tourist visa fees currently set at US$50 per person". She has promised to consult widely before taking the matter to cabinet for possible consideration.

The proposal will need to be much clearer. Is it no visa fees or no visas period? Logic demands that she must mean the latter because having a visa regime that does not recover costs would be costly to maintain. Presumably part of the visa fees goings towards administration and processing costs. But then again, abolishing visas to Zambia will have other implications. There's the question of losing the "security benefits" of a Visa regime. How much consideration will be given to that?

The obvious question of course is the extent to which the visa costs impacts on demand for tourism. Where is the evidence on this? Just how elasticity is international tourism demand to Zambia? Are the Lodge owners really correct that a US$50 waive will boost demand? It seems to me that what is important is having a common SADC Schengen system that is underpinned by a clear software system. Where individuals can be tracked across borders but would pretty much move freely.

This of course is not the first time these ideas have been proposed.

Securing Zambia's lost gemstones

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By Chola Mukanga

Gemstones are among the most lucrative minerals in the world. They are also stones that Zambia has in abundance. It has the second largest deposits of emeralds in the world and accounts for about 20% of global supplies. The quality of these emerald stones is very good for colour and specific gravity. Zambia also possesses Africa's largest deposits of amethyst and aquamarine, with the quality of the former considered to be amongst the very best in the world. These deposits can be found in Copperbelt, Eastern and Southern provinces, with more discoveries being made in other parts of Zambia as exploration intensifies. 

Unfortunately, like much of Zambia's mining story, the country has failed to benefit from these vast gemstones riches. Our completely liberalised gemstones sector have not delivered any tangible benefits to ordinary Zambians. There’s minimal employment creation, most of them are not owned by Zambians and the tax revenue is non-existent. As former Mines Minister Wilbur Simuusa, put it, “the gemstone sector can contribute about US$700 million annually if properly managed”. That dwarfs any amount being collected currently from copper mining. Properly managed, the production of gemstones has the potential to earn the country significant tax revenues and aid the much diversification away from copper. A full fledged gemstone sector may also be a catalyst in fighting, especially if it is dominated by indigenous firms and is able to create employment for many jobless youths. 

A number of explanations have been offered on why continues to fail to reap the benefits this critical sector. The Banda administration attributed it to the laziness of ordinary Zambians which has manifested itself in a lack of entrepreneurial zeal. Former Mines Minister Maxell Mwale argued that Zambians have failed to develop emerald mines despite government doing all it can to help. According to Mr Mwale, rather than using the credit facilities GRZ had apparently put in place, many Zambians increasingly resort to selling their gemstone licenses to foreign buyers. It is apparently common practice for Zambians to obtain mining licences and giving them to foreigners to undertake operations at a fee.Interestingly though Mr Mwale does not believe that poor licensing regime is the issue. Instead it is all to do with people's laziness. 

That conclusion is of course misguided. It is true that re-selling of licenses happens all the time but it is merely a symptom not the disease.  Providing licences to Zambians will continue to lose government revenues because the structural incentives for individual Zambians to develop gemstone mines are fairly weak. It is clearly cheaper and more immediately rewarding for many Zambians to allow foreign production (by charging the "fee") rather than develop the mine themselves. To successfully develop these mines it requires access to finance and established supply chains. Foreign investors usually have all these things in abundance and crucially they are able to harness the economies of scale that are associated with pooling licences together. Its therefore no surprise that they increasingly buy out locals!

Of course increased foreign led production is not bad in of itself. Indeed, at one level perhaps it probably does not matter whether foreign investors dominate the sector. The problem in Zambia is that foreign investors keep their revenues abroad! With zero profit retention restrictions, foreign originating gemstone companies are earning significant revenues without directly benefiting the economy as a whole. The other problem is that the whole sector is corrupted with rampant illegal smuggling. Indeed, even the more legitimate players have been accused of complex transfer pricing mechanisms. The gemstones sector in many ways is bedevilled with the same problems facing the mining sectors as a whole.

A major problem which has been flagged up by the Government’s Gemstones Processing and Lapidary Training Centre (GPLTC) is the dual issue of illegal mining and export of unprocessed stones. There are many mines in the country which operate without a license and smuggle stones abroad. These stones are nearly always unprocessed and therefore do not fetch good price on the international market, as compared to legally exported, cut and polished products. The uncontrolled sale of gemstones and lack of accountability are just few of the challenges being faced in the development of the gemstones industry. Sadly, even legitimate exporters also shun processing which explains why India is the top destination of Zambia's gemstones. It is estimated that less than 10% of the gemstones exported from Zambia are cut or refined in any way, meaning that the bulk of value-added to these stones is earned abroad by international trading houses, jewellery factories, and others.

The question of course is how best to solve these problems. At the fundamental level the strategic choice would appear to be whether the development of the industry should be state led or private sector led.

A state-led modelwould essentially mean more active involvement of Government in the production process. The argument is that revenues may be maximised if a larger proportion of licenses belonged to Government and it developed the gemstone mines on behalf of the people. Stronger government role has the advantage of minimising the fundamental problems associated with licensing and coming up with adequate taxation mechanism. The downside to state led capitalism is the extent to which it would be inefficient and difficult to maintain. The main contention against greater state involvement boils down to competence. Can GRZ run a national firm that is seeking to develop precious stones? This idea of state led production naturally evokes historical nightmares of failed projects of the past. The failure to run these companies in the past presents a psychological barrier for many Zambians who now believe Government is incapable of running profitable companies.

However, greater state involvement should not be easily dismissed. Government already is directly involved in the industry through its 25% per cent shareholding in Kagem mines. Gemfields acquired a 75 per cent shareholding in the mine in 2007. The Gemfield-GRZ partnership demonstrates that public private partnerships may deliver better results than a purely market led gemstone industry. Indeed, the PPP model is the basis for most of the successful mining development initiatives across Africa. Botswana’s Debswana initiative, and recently Angola’s Endiama serve as prime examples. Typically, in Angola the developer is expected to fund 100% of the capital expenditure although owning only around 40% of the mine. The rest of the equity is held by the Angolan government through Endiama and by nominated private Angolan investors all of whom are entitled to a “free carry.” Once completed, the developer has priority over revenues until the capex outlay is recovered but may still get only about 80% of the initial revenues because of profit share agreements with the Angolans. Such a model if implemented in Zambia may guarantee stronger revenues in this sector than at present.

An alternative model is to continue relying on private sectorbut with renewed Government focus on addressing key areas where it may add value. Three areas are particularly critical.

First, government could identify areas which need more coordinated action. A key example is investment in processing equipment that would enable the gemstone miners to produce finished products. Small firms may be unable to invest in such and therefore would need direct Government involvement to pull these together. Government may also be better placed to invest in geological mapping with the potential for auctioning of licenses to highest bidders for surveyed areas. Another area is providing expertise and training, as currently undertaken through GPLTC. The sector is currently too dependent on foreign professionals and a high proportion of the senior management is foreign. In the largest gemstone mining companies the geologists and gemologists are predominantly foreign. More training may help reverse this trend and increase employment opportunities for ordinary Zambians.

Secondly, there would be need for more stringent laws and regulations target reducing illegal exports and reduction of undeclared revenues. The proposed Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Act which is designed to compel all mining firms operating in Zambia to disclose their production figures and all material payments they make would be a step in the right direction. It will encompass copper and gemstone small scale miners who will be required to disclose their production proceeds and payments being made to the Government annually. The challenge is to ensure that such new legislation is properly enforced.

To ensure that revenue is maximised, it would be necessary that processing is undertaken in Zambia. At present nearly all exported stones are processed in India. The reason for that is that India has implemented very stringent laws and regulations that encourage the importation of rough gemstones and export of finished gemstones, and discourage export of rough gemstones. Zambia would need to review is taxation framework to make it more punitive to export rough stones. However, in doing that care may be needed to minimize the potential for diverting the trade further underground. A key part of that effort is to encourage the formation of a gemstone association to provide a central focus for Government consultation.

In general, both the State and private sector models offer interesting possibilities to improve on the status quo. Both approaches have inherent risks. On the balance, the the state led model through stronger PPP arrangements offers the more certain way to capture revenues. Whatever is done, it is important that sanity is restored to this sector. Illegal mining and trading actives needs to be curbed. Adequate infrastructure is needed in terms of training and value addition. There’s an urgent need to improve technologies, increase training and management skills; and developing reputable, enduring market linkages. The sector holds vast potential for Zambia. The question is : are we bold and visionary enough to drastically bring about the change we need to ensure that the poorest benefit? Or are we simply content to leave to foreign companies to continue the exploitation of this sector?

Chola Mukanga is founder and editor of the Zambian Economist which exists to encourage development of “Ideas for a better Zambia

Copyright: Zambian Economist, 2012 

How reliable are our GDP numbers?

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One of the questions we get often relates to Zambia’s GDP. Recently someone asked : are the GDP growth figures a true reflection of Zambia’s economic performance?

The simple answer is no because GDP has several limitations for a country such as ours.

First, GDP measures the value of output produced in Zambia. But only that which is officially recorded. It does not capture our large informal sector (believed to be around 40% - 60% of gross national income), where the bulk of transactions are not recorded. So countries which record transactions better will have higher GDP than Zambia but that does not mean our true national output is smaller.

Secondly, GDP does not take into account negative externalities. So if you produce more copper and you cause sickness to people around Kankoyo, they say GDP has increased. But that is only because we are not producing the 'right amount' of copper in a safe and humane way. The true cost of producing copper is not being included.

Which leads to the third point. GDP does not measure quality of life. It does not tell us whether Zambians today are better in terms of “quality of living” than we were last year. It is a pure measure of income. Quality of life should not be confused with standard of living, a measure of income. Quality of life includes other things e.g. basic human rights, freedom, good mental well being, wealth in general, education, etc. Things that are seen as building blocks of “real development”

And of course it goes without saying, money cannot give you happiness. Especially if societies are highly unequal, like we have we in Zambia. The few control all the resources, mine our copper and keep shuffling national jobs among themselves. We are deeply unequal and as a result deeply unhappy.

A word of caution.

GDP growth may be a potentially useful statistic. It tells us that measured GDP has grown. But we need to be clear what the changes may be signaling. If GDP grows it is not necessarily the case that the economy has grown. It could simply be that more and more businesses are becoming formalised. In short our growth may be due to the fact that we are now better at recording and we have fewer black markets! In practice very little may have changed!

Constituency Development Funds, 4th Edition

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Miles Sampa recently revealed via Facebook that the CDF budget has increased, "after strong submissions from all MPs in general; my Minister has Heard and adjusted the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) in the 2013 Budget from K1BN to K1.3BN per Constituency".  This represents an increase of K0.5bn because previously it was around K0.8bn. The new 2013 budget raised to K1bn and now they have raised it again as the budget is debated.

All of this is baffling of course. As we have noted previously. Not too long ago it was revealed that the Government by its own admission has not measured the impact of the CDF on the socio-economic development of constituencies from inception to date. Two major studies which were conducted by Caritas Zambia and the Economic Association of Zambia (EAZ) on the impact of the CDF which are in public domain have shown rampart corruption and misallocation of funds. So how can GRZ keep increasing this fund?

The better approach there is to abolish it! In its place a better fiscal framework should be put in place. Let councils have proper fiscal decentralisation. Let them spend the money they raise through local taxes. And please, let us ensure MPs stay out of money issues. It corrupts their proper functions : which is creating laws; representation; and, advocacy. Only in Zambia do Members of Parliament worry about local budgets! Such should be the job of a properly functioning council! Not MPs!

Merry Christmas and Happy 2013!

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Dear Friends,

As is customary since this website was founded, I will be taking 1 month off to recharge the batteries. Over the years I have come to value this period and I hope you agree that it has served us well.

Many thanks for all your support through this year, especially those who have made financial contributions. A special thanks to our many Facebook (7900+) and Twitter (2500+) readers. Your contributions continue to be insightful and relevant.

Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas and fantastic 2013!!

See you on 7 January 2013, the Lord willing.

Chola Mukanga
Founder, Zambian Economist
http://www.zambian-economist.com

Your Companies

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A comprehensive list of companies that you own (and some that you, through those you have entrusted to run them on your behalf, have failed to manage properly – so they are currently under liquidation):

State Owned Enterprises :

• African Reinsurance Corporation
• Afrox Zambia Limited
• Contact Haulage Limited
• Development Bank of Zambia
• Engineering Services Corporation
• Indeni Petroleum Products Limited
• Indo-Zambia Bank Limited
• Kagem Mining Limited
• Kariba Mineral Limited
• Lusaka Trust Hospital
• Medical Stores Limited
• MOFED (London) Limited
• MOFED (Tanzania) Limited
• Mpulungu Harbour Corporation
• Mukuba Hotel
• Mulungushi Village Complex Limited
• Mupepetwe Engineering Company
• Nanga Farms PLC
• National Airports Corporation
• National Housing Authority
• National Savings and Credit Bank
• Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia Limited
• Tazama Pipeline Limited
• Tanzania Zambia Railways (TAZARA)
• Times of Zambia
• Zambia Forestry and Forests Industries Corporation (ZAFFICO)
• Zambia – China Mulungushi Textiles of Zambia
• Zambia Daily Mail
• Zambia Education and Publishing House
• Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation Limited
• Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation
• Zambia National Building Society
• Zambia National Commercial Bank
• Zambia Printing Company
• Zambia Railways Limited
• Zambia State Lotteries Board
• Zambia Telecommunication Corporation
• Zamcapitol Enterprises
• Zambia Postal Services (ZAMPOST)
• Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) – Investment Holdings (IH)
• Zambia State Insurance Corporation (ZSIC) Group

State Owned Enterprises in Liquidation :

• E.C. Milling
• Exim Bank
• Lima Bank
• Lint Company (Lintco)
• Livingstone Motor Assemblers
• Mansa Batteries
• Mulungsuhi Investments Limited
• National Home Stores Limited
• Reserve Minerals Corporation
• United Buses of Zambia (UBZ)
• Zambezi Sawmills
• Zambia Airways Corporation Limited
• Zambia Emerald Industries Limited
• Zambia Steel and Building Supplies
• Zambia Mining and Industrial Corporation (ZIMCO) Limited
• Zambia National Oil Company (ZNOC)

(Source: Ministry of Finance)

Bondmania

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The success of the $750m Eurobond is leading to various public sector bodies to consider more bond debt to finance various infrastructure. 

ZESCO has been on the road looking to acquire $2 billion debt to fund new investments. The company sent managers to the U.K. and the U.S. in a bid to raise the money from investors. South Africa's Standard Bank Group Ltd is advising the company, which has meet investors in London, Boston and New York. According to Mr Chitundu (ZESCO CEO) the company may also sell a Eurobond similar to the $750 million raised by the government in September 2012, “We are probably talking $1 billion, probably even $2 billion". 

Lusaka City Council (LCC) is pressing ahead with the $500m municipal bond proposal. It has called for the expression of interest for a book runner and legal advisor. The appointment will be made in February. When the money is raised, it will be used for construction of 3,500 high rise housing units.  In the case of LCC, a municipal bond when bought is equivalent to offering a loan to the local council that promises to pay back at maturity and pays interests at set amounts annual / semi-annual. In truth to call these "bonds" is simply a matter of custom, these really are "debentures" (unsecured promises to pay). The local councils cannot pledge public assets as security but can pledge certain revenues.

That is where the problem starts with our councils. Future revenue is not guaranteed for many reasons including corruption, mismanagement and general failure by tenants to pay back debts. So we can expect, this new LCC bond to be guaranteed by Government in some way. Government will eventually bailout Lusaka City Council due to rampant fiscal irresponsibility. This issue therefore goes beyond LCC. We have touched on alternative ways of local finance here

In general, securing debt is not necessarily a bad thing  if we are spending money on important projects and we have a coherent debt management strategy in place. Unfortunately  at present there's no parliamentary oversight over Zambia's growing debt accumulation. Parliament continues to be sidelined because no clear debt management strategy exists. There should be a halt to all external debt procurement by public bodies until that is resolved - not least because Zambia has not fully capitalised on leveraging domestic sources of revenue. It seems we want to become more indebted before we see the need to plan better. Not very wise. 

Poverty of CSR

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"Though multinational firms in the mining industry have been preaching elaborate Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programmes, some of these initiatives are cosmetic and fail to satisfy the local communities. Mining firms, by any measure, make super profits and are capable of contributing more to the national Treasury as well as to the communities in which they operate.....Zambia should craft a tax regime that will be able to capture sufficient revenue from the mining firms without stifling production and profit levels. The country’s poverty levels can go down if the tax regime was worked out to seal all loop-holes that give rise to evasion...The country is richly endowed with mineral resources and holds about six per cent of the world’s known copper reserves..... But it is sad that the majority of citizens particularly those in the countryside live in abject poverty to the extent that some families are surviving on about $1 a day..."
- Times of Zambia  

It was good to pick up the  seems people are finally waking up to the arguments we have advanced time and time again. CSR is a bribe that no serious patriot should ever rely on to satisfy our country. The idea of sorting out Zambia Revenue Authority is also a pipe dream because globally multinationals always avoid profit based taxes. Zambia is not unique.

Zambia has two options :

a) Increase revenue based taxes that guarantees returns (i.e. restore windfall tax, or introduce a new infrastructure tax)

b) Follow the Angolan / Botswana models - 50% share in all new mining investments and stronger requirements on Zambians being employed in those ventures.

What other options should we pursue?
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